Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions player prop picks & odds for the (1/21/24) matchup.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Player Prop Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday at 3:00pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. The Bucs are currently a +6.5 underdog and +260 on the moneyline while the total is set at 49. Expect Jared Goff to thrive against the Bucs heavy blitz rate while Chris Godwin steps up to cushion the loss production of Rachaad White, all giving value as player props for this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions matchup.
Jared Goff Over 277.5 Passing Yards
Not only did the Lions get their first playoff win in 30 years, but they also get the benefit of hosting another playoff game. This bodes well for Jared Goff, whose production takes a nosedive when he has to play on the road. In addition to homefield, Goff also gets to play against a Bucs defense that leaves itself vulnerable across the middle at times due to their heavy use of the blitz.
While the Bucs blitz at the third highest rate in the league, they often fail to generate pressure, ranking 26th in Pressure Rate. The more times quarterbacks have to throw against their blitz packages, the more exposed their cornerbacks become. In this game, they will have to try and cover the likes of Amon-Ra St Brown and Sam LaPorta who are two elite space creators.
Better yet for Goff’s ability to clear this high mark, his offensive line will be in a position to dominate as they rank fourth in Adjusted Sack Rate. That bodes well for them against a Bucs front seven who is average at best, a front four that ranks 16th in Def Adjusted Sack Rate. With a clean pocket and minimal pressure, expect Goff to continue to punish the blitz.
Jared Goff Under 0.5 Interception
Goff’s efficiency heading into this matchup is worth acknowledging. Goff was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league before a poor four-week stint in the middle of the season, now looking crisp and poised in the pocket while hitting his receivers in stride.
Former Ram Jared Goff with a dart to former Ram Josh Reynolds.
— NFL (@NFL) January 15, 2024
With his offensive line in a position to give him a clean pocket, as well as facing a Bucs defense that creates high quality gaps in coverage due to their use of the blitz, expect Goff to put together another efficient game. Should Goff face pressure at times, he has Jahmyr Gibbs at his disposal as a dump off option who can punish a thinned out second level of the defense as well.
Rachaad White Under 54.5 Rushing Yards
Not only has rush production been practically non-existent for the Buccaneers, but they also now have to face one of the best run stopping front sevens in the league. The Lions have been a dominant run stopping unit all season long, entering the contest ranked first in Def Rush DVOA, fourth in Def Rush EPA, eighth in Def Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
That doesn’t exactly bode well for Rachaad White who led a Bucs rushing attack that ranked 28th in Rush DVOA, 32nd in Rush Success Rate, and 27th in Rush EPA. His vision looks questionable at times as he often runs into closed gaps, giving opposing linebacking units the chance to crash down and limit his production behind the line.
His offensive line also does him no favors with generating a push in the trenches, ranking a lowly 27th in Adjusted Line Yards. Factor in the Bucs advantages in the pass attack against a weak Lions secondary and Rachaad White may see his rush attempts diminished. As 6-point underdogs, the Bucs will need to maximize on their offensive opportunities, being better off throwing at a heavy rate.
Chris Godwin Over 63.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of Detroit’s weak secondary, this is an area of concern for the Lions defense as their coverage has been bad for the second half of the season. They come into this contest ranked 25th in Def Pass EPA and Def Pass Success Rate, now having to cover the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
With help side coverage most likely going towards Evans, expect Godwin to capitalize against singular coverage. Especially with him most likely drawing Kindle Vildor as his cover man, one of the worst corners in the NFL. The Bucs will need to try and stay within scoring pace of the Lions and that means a heavier rate of the pass. With a potential increase in targets comes a better chance of cashing this over.