Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday (1/21/24) at 3:00pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions predictions below as our best bet is on the Lions moneyline as a valuable parlay piece with the Baltimore Ravens moneyline.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet
Last weekend could not have gone better for Lions’ fans. Not only did the team secure their first playoff win in 30 years, but the Green Bay Packers also upset the Dallas Cowboys, giving the Lions an opportunity to play another home playoff game for the Divisional round.
The Lions now host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fresh off of a thrashing of the Philadelphia Eagles, serving as a rematch from their matchup earlier this season. A game the Lions won 20-6.
If the Lions want to win this one comfortably, their defensive line will need to force the Bucs to be a one-dimensional offense. With defensive rush metrics that grade out as elite, ranking first in Def Rush DVOA, fourth in Def Rush EPA, eighth in Def Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Def Adjusted Line Yards, they have a good shot at doing this. Moreover, the Bucs run game metrics register closer to the back half of the league, where they rank 28th in Rush DVOA, 32nd in Rush Success Rate, and 27th in Rush EPA.
Better yet for the Lions, Baker Mayfield is dealing with an ankle injury and has struggled under pressure as of late. His mobility in the pocket has taken a hit, leaving him more prone to pressure than before. The Lions excel at collapsing opposing pockets, ranking third in the league in Pressure Rate. That forces Mayfield to get the ball out of his hands quicker than he would like, lessening the chance of Mike Evans or Chris Godwin breaking one out for a big gain.
Speaking of pressure, few teams blitz more without generating pressure than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their defense blitzes at the third highest rate in the league while clocking in at 26th in Pressure Rate. That spells potential doom against Jared Goff who has thrived against the blitz. Factor in the strength of the Lions pass catchers and Goff should find himself with plenty of high-quality throwing opportunities against a wide-open middle of the field.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Prediction & Best Bet: Lions / Ravens Moneyline Parlay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds
Oddsmakers project this to be the Lions game to lose by opening Detroit as a -6.5 favorite. Bettors have yet to take a firm stand on either side of the spread, keeping the number the same since the opener.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderately high rate as they opened the number at 47. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly faster pace, betting the over up to 48.5 as of writing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Key Injuries
Both teams come into this contest fairly healthy with only notable names on the injury report being Chris Godwin and Frank Ragnow, who are both listed as questionable.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Key Matchups
Can the Lions ground game find success against the Bucs front seven?
Lions Ground Game Vs. Bucs Front Seven
Not only should Jared Goff thrive in the pass attack, but Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should play a big part with their mid field rush success. The Bucs have struggled in this area, ranking 16th in Def Rush Success Rate and 14th in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
JAHMYR GIBBS IS IN FOR 6️⃣
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) January 15, 2024
That bodes well for the Lions rush attack as they come into this contest ranked eighth in Rush Success Rate and sixth in Adjusted Line Yards. That means Gibbs and Montgomery should be able to churn out sizable chunks at a time on early downs, giving Goff lesser distances to gain for a higher chance at moving the sticks. If either back can avoid a clogged line from the blitz, then they should find themselves with plenty of open field to work with for a big run.
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Detroit Lions Depth Chart
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