Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions SGP (1/21/24): Expert Same Game Parlay Picks For DraftKings & FanDuel
Get Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions same game parlay picks & odds for their (1/21/24) matchup.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions kicks off this Sunday at 3:00pm EST in Detroit Michigan as a home game for the Lions. The Bucs are currently a +6.5 underdog and +260 on the moneyline while the total is set at 48.5. Expect a high scoring affair in the Lions favor while Jared Goff and Chris Godwin lead their offenses, all giving value for a same game parlay in this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions matchup.
Leg 1: Detroit Lions Moneyline
After getting their first playoff win in 30 years, the Detroit Lions now have their eyes set on the NFC Conference Championship. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand in their way, an opponent that the Lions handled with ease earlier this year. In that Week 6 matchup, the Lions defense took center stage, holding the Bucs to just six points in a 20-6 win.
They are in a position to do just that as their front seven will turn the Bucs into a one-dimensional offense. The Lions rank first in Def Rush DVOA, fourth in Def Rush EPA, eighth in Def Rush Success Rate, and sixth in Def Adjusted Line Yards while the Bucs grade out near dead last across the board in offensive rushing metrics. Moreover, Baker Mayfield is dealing with an ankle injury which affects his pocket mobility and now has to face a defense who ranks third in Pressure Rate.
As for the offense, the Lions should continue to take advantage of the Bucs own defensive scheme as they bring in the third heaviest rate of the blitz while only ranking 26th in Pressure. With one of the best offensive lines in the league, Jared Goff should find himself with a clean pocket and plenty of space in the middle of the field. Expect the Lions offense to routinely find themselves in scoring position while their defense gives Mayfield fits.
Leg 2: Detroit Lions Team Total Over 27.5
With the Lions in a position to routinely find themselves in scoring position, their team total over is intriguing as it sits right under the key number of 28. Jared Goff has the opportunity to shred the Bucs exposed coverage from their high blitz rate, hitting his elite group of pass catchers in stride for sizable gains at a time.
Jared Goff with the dagger into the heart of the team that traded him away pic.twitter.com/IeEiDOjdFl
— Max Loeb (@loebsleads) January 15, 2024
That same pass success should be available when the Lions enter the red zone as the Bucs pass coverage ranks 22nd in Def Pass EPA. That is potentially detrimental against a Lions pass attack that thrives when in scoring position, clocking in at seventh in Pass EPA and DVOA. Should the Bucs sell out in coverage over the blitz, Jahmyr Gibbs will be in a position to burst through the thinned-out trenches and punch one in as well.
Leg 3: Jared Goff Over 272.5 Passing Yards
Jared Goff’s passing over prop directly correlates with the previously mentioned breakdowns and the Lions will be wise to let him throw at a high rate in order to move the ball down the field. This is a blend of attacking the Bucs own defensive scheme, as well as fading the Lions ground attack as they may struggle against an impressive Bucs front seven.
By facing a high rate of the blitz, the Lions ground game will find it tough to find high quality running lanes. The Bucs rank fifth in Def Rush EPA and eighth in Def Rush DVOA, as well as having extra bodies crashing down in order to slow down Gibbs and Montgomery. Expect the Lions to throw at a heavier rate instead, giving a better chance of cashing this high total.
Leg 4: Chris Godwin Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
The Detroit Lions possess one of the worst secondaries in football, a unit that ranks 25th in Def Pass EPA and Def Pass Success Rate. Like the Lions, the Bucs best course of action will be to throw the ball consistently as Godwin should be able to create separation in this spot. With Mike Evans drawing in doubles off the help side, expect Godwin to take advantage of singular coverage.
Same Game Parlay Card For Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
- Lions ML
- Lions Team Total Over 27.5
- Jared Goff Over 272.5 Passing Yards
- Chris Godwin Over 62.5 Receiving Yards
Full SGP Odds: +471 ($10 wins $47.10)
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