Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers Matchup Preview (10/18/20): Betting Odds, Depth Charts, Live Stream (Watch Online)
Week six of the NFL witholds a matchup between two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have played each other 17 times, including the playoffs, and Brady has won 11 of those matchups against Rodgers’ Packers. The Packers have started off this season undefeated at 4-0, and are coming off a bye week last week. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are 3-2 and are tied with the Saints in the NFC South after losing last week on Thursday night against the Chicago Bears. For odds movement and full matchup history, visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers matchup page.
Date: Sunday, October 18th, 2020
Time: 4:25 PM ET
Location: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa Bay, Florida
TV Coverage: FOX
Buccaneers vs. Packers Live Stream
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Questionable to play: Khalil Davis (ankle), Scott Miller (hip), Carlton Davis (abdomen), Mike Evans (ankle), Jordan Whitehead (knee), Rob Gronkowski (shoulder), Jason Pierre-Paul (knee), Lavonte David (knee), Leonard Fournette (ankle), Chris Godwin (hamstring), LeSean McCoy (ankle)
Green Bay Packers: Questionable to play: Jaire Alexander (hand), Tyler Ervin (wrist), Marcedes Lewis (knee), Kevin King (quadriceps), Krys Barnes (ankle), Rashan Gary (ankle)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Analysis
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have started off the season at an interesting 3-2 record which is tied with the New Orleans Saints for first in the NFC South. Tom Brady is still trying to figure out his new offense and the difficulties he never experienced on the Patriots, like having Bill Belichick call your plays. The Buccaneers are certainly treating a lot of injuries on both sides of the ball, most notably on the offense with Leonard Fournette, LeSean McCoy, Rob Gronkowski, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin. If they can get healthy before Sunday against the Packers, they will have a chance to give them their first loss of the season.
Tom Brady is certainly looking well in Tampa Bay as he has led this team to a 3-2 record. He has adjusted pretty well in the Bruce Arians’ offense that favors throwing the ball deep. Brady has played a little out of his usual scheme with 1543 air yards, which rank sixth in the NFL currently. Unlike the Packers, the Buccaneers certainly throw the ball more than they run it at 62.96% of plays. But, the pass offense has been above average averaging 268 yards per game.
Outside of the passing game, the Buccaneers have arguably one of the deeper running back cores led by Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette in the backfield. However, they hardly run the ball for a team that has two, star running backs, only running 37.04% of the game on average. They only rush around 100 yards per game and fail to average one rushing touchdown per game. The Green Bay defense defends the run decently well, but most teams are not used to running against them since they are most likely down. The Buccaneers should make use of their two running backs if both are healthy next week.
The Tampa Bay defense is quite honestly one of the best in the league this season allowing only 22.4 points per game. Furthermore, they allow the second least amount of offensive yards this season with 298.2 yards. On top of that, they allow the least amount of rushing yards, only allowing 58.4 rushing yards. They are certainly better at defending the run opposed to the pass where they allow quarterbacks an average completion percentage of 70.95%. However, if they can put pressure on Rodgers with the 3.4 average amount of sacks they have surmounted this season, they will have an easier time defending the pass next week. The look to avoid a .500 record next week at home in Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Depth Chart
Green Bay Packers Analysis
The Green Bay Packers have started off the season 4-0 and lead the NFC North as one of the best teams in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers and the Packer offense are certainly one of the best in the league behind Matt LaFleur. This will be the first above-average defense that the Packers will be seeing and one of the better teams they will see all season. They look to extend their undefeated record to 5-0 in Tampa Bay next week.
Aaron Rodgers and Matt LeFleur have created one of the most productive and efficient offenses in the league this season. They have scored 38 points per game, the most per game in the NFL, and have been winning by a margin of 12.8 points per game. The offense scores nearly five touchdowns on average per game and around 450 total offensive yards. Not to mention, the Rodgers’ special of in-game tempo has prevailed with the best time of possession in the NFL, averaging 34:20 on offense.
Aaron Rodgers has certainly continued his elite level status this season ranking in the top ten in completion percentage and touchdowns this season. He averages close to 300 yards per game and three touchdowns per game this season as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Not to mention, he has been sacked one of the least of any quarterbacks this season with only three sacks through four weeks. Tampa Bay has a pretty decent pass rush and decent secondary that could make a stand against one of the best offenses in the league.
Aaron Jones is one of the best dual-threat NFL running backs and his rushing offense is certainly proving it. The Packer offense rushes close to as much as they pass it which is surprising when you have Aaron Rodgers on your team. But, the run game is averaging 150 yards and one touchdown per game making them one of the best rushing offenses in the league. He has stepped in well without Davante Adams in the offense in the past two weeks and should continue to do that next week against the Buccaneers.
The Packer defense has been average this season while allowing 25.2 opponent points per game, which is in the bottom half of the league. Most of the time teams are not rushing against this team, but they do allow over 100 rushing yards per game. On top of that, they are not incredible at defending the pass due to the fact that they allow their opponents to complete 72.98% of their passes. They will need to scheme up differently against an offense with a lot of high-level skill players on their team to win this one.
Green Bay Packers Depth Chart
Betting Corner Packers -1
Spread: +/- 1
Moneyline: Packers -124, Buccaneers +102
Spread: Packers -1
Moneyline: Packers -124
Considering the Packers are undefeated against the spread this season, it will be tough to argue that they cannot cover it against the Buccaneers. The Buccaneers are an odd team that has lost to the Bears and the Saints this season, who are barely top ten teams in the league. I think the Packer offense will overwhelm their defense and allow them to cover and win in week six.
Surprisingly, I think the under will be the best bet for this week due to the fact that Rodgers could be shocked against the Bucs’ solid defense. Plus, the Buccaneers have averaged half of the line’s points around 27, and I think they will dip below that against a tough Packer defense and offense that loves to hold the ball.
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Fantasy Love/Hate Picks
Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the league and has missed the last two weeks due to a hamstring injury. Even without him, the Packers have managed to dominate teams offensively. I think he is due for a top-five fantasy week if he is fully healthy making him a valuable WR1
Leonard Fournette has been dealing with an injury that has kept him out of the last two weeks, even though he was “active” last week. He is the premier goal-line rusher for the Buccaneers and I see them making great use of him in the red zone next week against a defense that allows their opponent to score in the red zone 70% of the time. He has the potential to put up RB2 type numbers next week.
Even though he was one of the best fantasy receivers last season, I am not a fan of starting Chris Godwin in fantasy lineups next week unless it is a flex play. He has dealt with two separate injuries already this season and is still dealing with a hamstring injury. His best game this year included five catches for 64 yards and a touchdown, which is solid but was against a terrible Denver Broncos’ defense. Tom Brady spreads the ball too much for me to love Godwin as a consistent fantasy receiver. He is most likely a must start for teams, but has low-end WR2 potential with better flex value.