The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Indianapolis Colts face off on Sunday (11/26/23) in an inter-conference matchup between two teams coming off bye weeks. In this article, get Buccaneers vs. Colts player prop picks & odds for the matchup featuring Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, and Mike Evans.
Be sure to use the player prop search tool below to compare odds from different sportsbooks as they can vary significantly across different markets. I’ll list the odds for each prop here and the book where I found it, but keep in mind that the numbers could shift by the time you’re reading this. Let’s get to work.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Picks
Michael Pittman Jr. Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DraftKings)
The Colts’ offense has found success under first-year head coach Shane Steichen, and Michael Pittman Jr. has been a big reason why. Pittman leads the team with a monstrous 30.4% target share, which ranks eighth in the NFL. He also ranks eighth with 66 receptions that he has taken for 677 yards.
The Buccaneers have an elite run defense – first in EPA, third in DVOA – but lag behind in pass defense – 25th in EPA, 20th in DVOA. Therefore, I’m expecting a pass heavy approach from the Colts against a secondary that’s allowing the most passing yards in the NFL over the past month.
Tampa Bay cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean have been playing through injuries seemingly all season, and that hasn’t helped this struggling secondary. Pittman Jr. has been over 70.5 receiving yards in three of his last five games while the Bucs have allowed a wide receiver to go over this number in seven of their ten games.
Jonathan Taylor Under 82.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
There’s strong correlation between this Taylor under and the Pittman over as we’re betting on the Colts playing to the strengths and weaknesses of their opponent with an emphasis on the passing game. Tampa Bay’s run defense is among the best in the NFL as they rank top three in DVOA and EPA in that regard.
Jonathan Taylor has been under 82.5 rushing yards in three of his four games as a starter this season, and while the bye week could give him an opportunity to get healthier, I still have concerns about his efficiency as he’s averaging just 3.8 YPC this season. Even if Taylor plays to that season long metric, he’d need to hit 21+ carries in this game.
Only one running back has eclipsed this number against the Buccaneers in 10 games this season, and it was D’Andre Swift who runs behind the best offensive line in football. The Colts are 27th in adjusted line yards, so this is an easy fade spot for Taylor.
Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170 FanDuel)
A future Hall of Fame wide receiver, Mike Evans scores touchdowns in his sleep with seven through 10 games this season. That 70% hit rate would suggest fair odds of around -230 on this prop, so we’re getting a great value based on that alone. Evans is one of the most dominant goal-line receivers in the history of the game.
With multiple first and second year players seeing significant snaps at cornerback, the Colts are a middle of the pack coverage unit according to PFF. Indianapolis’s run defense has been the more susceptible unit overall, but the Bucs won’t change their passing tendencies in the red zone.