Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers (6/2/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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The New York Rangers came out in Game 1 at home and smoked the defending Stanley Cup champs. With a 6-2 final score, the Tampa Bay Lightning didn’t even look competitive.
One of the big storylines coming into this game was Andrei Vasilevskiy against Igor Shesterkin. The former is one of the titans of the game and has been the Lightning’s best player of the last two postseason runs. The latter is the best young goalie we’ve seen in years.
Well, Shesterkin put together a shutdown performance. Vasilevskiy got absolutely lit up – it was maybe Vasilevskiy’s worst playoff performance ever.
Andrei needs this game for his reputation, and the Lightning need this game to try and even the series heading back to Florida. But can they take down the Rangers on New York’s home ice?
Let’s dive into the betting odds and my prediction for this Game 2 matchup.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers Betting Odds
In a game between two of the best goalies – and defenses – in the NHL, most thought the under would hit easily in Game 1.
These two teams proved bettors wrong. What else is new?
Nonetheless, sharp money has begun to hit the under again, which sits at 5.5 (-115) across the market. It’s probably worth looking at that from a zig-zag angle.
Meanwhile, the Lightning open as considerable road favorites again. I think the Lightning are still the better team and, according to Money Puck’s Expected Goals Scored statistic, the Lightning win this game over 75% of the time.
Image credit: Money Puck
But does that mean the Lightning are an auto-bet in Game 2? Let’s dig in more.
Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis
Look, Tampa Bay had more shots on goals. Those shots were often of higher quality, too.
Image credit: Money Puck
As a result, the Lightning should’ve scored more Expected Goals. With that stat in mind, the Lightning really dominated for all 60 minutes.
Image credit: Money Puck
But honestly, I’m not sure if the Lightning should’ve won that game.
They came out sleeping, allowing an unpredictable goal in the first minute of the game. Mika Zibanejad picked off a puck while the Lightning were changing and stormed down the ice while Chris Kreider stormed down the left-wing. Zibanejad sent a perfect pass across the slot and Kreider buried it to give the Rangers the earliest 1-0 lead they’ve seen this playoff run.
It was a mistake by the Lightning. They looked rusty the whole game, and they looked especially rusty coming out of the gate. This was the perfect example of it.
71 seconds in and the @NYRangers are on the board thanks to Chris Kreider! 🗽 #StanleyCup
🇺🇸: @ESPN ➡️ https://t.co/hFwYEYldCa
🇨🇦: @Sportsnet ➡️ https://t.co/uuz1sz1pM3 pic.twitter.com/Tja0Ns8Djy— NHL (@NHL) June 2, 2022
They also got dominated on the faceoff end, losing that battle 33-22. That allowed the Rangers to completely control the time of possession. And the Rangers took every advantage of that (more on that later).
Finally, Vasilevskiy was beyond bad. He allowed six goals on 34 shots for a lackluster .824 save percentage. He posted a -3.52 Goals Saved Above Expected, which erased a third of his total Goals Saved Above Expected during this playoff run.
So the Lightning got the shots needed, but there are three problems that need solving – effort, possession, and goalkeeping. Those are fixable problems, but Tampa better get it together now.
New York Rangers Analysis
The Rangers’ depth and possession really won this game. I mentioned how the Rangers won 60% of the faceoffs, but what they did with those possessions won the game.
This fourth-line shift from the Rangers’ “kids” was astounding. The defensemen kept the puck in, the forwards cycled the puck, and they continued to get solid shots on net until they beat the previously unbeatable Vasilevskiy.
The Shift, in its entirety.
The kids. 👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/ymMs6E3JrC
— New York Rangers (@NYRangers) June 2, 2022
That’s winning hockey. It doesn’t always matter how many shots you get on the net, but who is the smarter, more physical, and more intense team.
The Rangers were also the much-better team on the Power Play and Penalty Kill. The Lightning had three Power Play opportunities and converted none, while the Rangers buried one of their two Power Play chances on the night.
Again, that’s winning hockey.
Igor Shesterkin took 44 shots to the dome and saved 42. He posted a 2.45 Goals Saved Above Expected mark in the game, meaning he was a full five Expected Goals better than Vasilevskiy.
I never gave the Vasilevskiy vs Shesterkin debate much thought, as I always thought the latter was better than the former. But, I know the Rangers’ net-keeper changed a lot of minds last night.
I think it might be tough for the Rangers to replicate this kind of performance. The Lightning won’t stay asleep forever, and the Rangers need to start getting pucks on net.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers Picks & Prediction
My pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-125 AT BetMGM Sportsbook)
Which is exactly why I’m taking the Lightning to bounce back immediately in this game.
You can’t keep Vasilevskiy down forever, the Lightning’s problems are all fixable, and the advanced statistics show that Tampa is the better hockey team.
The Rangers have the clear advantage on the Power Play and Penalty Kill, and they also have home ice advantage.
But Tampa is so much better in 5-on-5 hockey. The goalkeeper just needs to keep up, and how many times in his life has Vasilevskiy shown up in a big playoff game?
I’ll take the Lightning to even up the series at anything better than -130 on the ML.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers Starting Goalies & Line Combination
