Tampa Bay Lightning Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (5/10/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies

Playing at home, the Tampa Bay Lightning scored three goals in the first eight minutes of Game Four and never looked back, winning 7-3 as they tied the series at two against the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Ross Colton tallied two goals; Corey Perry scored his second goal of the playoffs while goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy made 22 saves in Tampa Bay’s victory.

Tampa Bay has won the last two Stanley Cups and they are +1200 to win their third consecutive title; the last team to do so was the New York Islanders who won four straight Stanley Cups in the early 1980’s.  Toronto is +425 to win the Eastern Conference; only behind the Florida Panthers and +900 to hoist the 2021-22 Stanley Cup; they last won the Stanley Cup in 1966-67.  

Tampa Bay Lightning Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Odds

Tampa Bay is listed at +105 to beat Toronto in the best of seven series.  The Lightning are 7-3 in their last 10 games.  The total number of goals has gone over in five of Tampa Bay’s last seven games on the road.  The Maple Leafs are currently -125 to defeat the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.  Toronto is 6-1 in their last seven games at home.  The total number of goals has gone over in four of the Maple Leafs last five games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Analysis

Steven Stamkos led the team in goals with 42 and points with 106 points during the regular season.  The center had 16 power play goals and an incredible 11 game winning goals in 2021-22.  The two-time Stanley Cup champion was a +24 while averaging 18:29 of ice time per game.  Stamkos scored his first goal of the postseason in Sunday’s win over the Maple Leafs; he has 33 career playoff goals.  The Lightning captain is +3000 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy this season.  Nikita Kucherov played in 47 games this season after missing the beginning of the season due to injury and was the club’s third leading scorer with 69 points (25 goals and 44 assists).  The 2018-19 Hart Trophy winner was a +1 in 2021-22 with 30 points on the power play (nine goals and 21 assists).  He has five points (one goal and four assists) in the first round series vs. Toronto.  Kucherov is currently listed at +3000 to win the 2021-22 Conn Smythe Award.  Ondrej Palat had 49 points in 77 games this season (18 goals and 31 assists).  He was a +15 and scored five game winning goals in 2021-22.  Palat has three points (two goals and one assist) in four games in the first round series against the Lightning.    

Victor Hedman was the second leading scorer for Tampa Bay in 2021-22 with 85 points (20 goals and 65 assists).  In 82 games this season, the 2017-18 Norris Trophy winner was a +26 with 129 blocked shots and 94 hits.  He had two assists and was a +4 in 25:03 of ice time in the Game Four victory.  Mikhail Sergachev was the second leading scorer among Lightning defensemen during the regular season with 38 points (seven goals and 31 assists).  He was +6 with 123 blocked shots and 139 hits in 2021-22.  In 73 career postseason games, Sergachev has registered 154 hits and blocked 103 shots.  Ryan McDonagh was a +15 this season, leading Tampa Bay with 137 blocked shots while adding 96 hits on the campaign.  In 70 career playoff games with the Lightning, he’s a +13 with 20 points (one goal and 19 assists).  

Andrei Vasilevskiy, the 2018-19 Vezina Trophy winner was 39-18-5 this season (tied for first in wins) in 63 games.  Tampa Bay’s number 88 had a .916 save percentage and a 2.49 GAA in 2021-22.  The 2020-21 Conn Smythe Trophy winner is currently +2500 to repeat as the playoff MVP this year.

Toronto Maple Leafs Analysis

Auston Matthews led the NHL in goals with 60 and was the Maple Leafs leading scorer with 106 points.  The sniper was a +20 with 16 power play goals and 10 game winning goals in 2021-22.  In the loss on Sunday, the star center had an assist, but was a -3 and held to one shot on goal.  Matthews has six points (two goals and four assists) through the first four games of the series; he’s +1500 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.  Mitch Marner was the second leading scorer for the Maple Leafs in the regular season with 97 points (35 goals and 62 assists).  Averaging 20:53 of ice time per game, he was a +23 on the season.  The right winger scored six power play goals, three shorthanded goals and five game winning goals in 2021-22.  Through the first four games of the series vs. the Lightning he has six points (two goals and four assists).  Marner is currently +3000 to win the 2021-22 Conn Smythe Trophy.  William Nylander had 80 points this year (34 goals and 46 assists).  Toronto’s number 88 scored 13 power play goals and seven game winning goals (second on the team) in 2021-22.  He had two goals in the game four loss on Sunday; he has 12 career postseason goals.  In his fourth campaign with Toronto, captain John Tavares had 76 points (27 goals and 49 assists) in 79 games.  This year he scored 10 goals on the power play and tallied three game winning goals.  In his 17 career playoff games with the Maple Leafs, Tavares has 10 points (four goals and six assists).

Morgan Reilly led Toronto’s defensive group with 68 points (10 goals and 58 assists) on the campaign.  He averaged 23:44 of ice time per game and was a +16 in 82 games.  In the Game Four loss, he was a -4 in 20:36 of ice time.  T.J. Brodie played in all 82 games this season, chipping in 28 points (four goals and 24 assists).  Additionally, he was a +20, blocking 106 shots and delivering 53 hits.  Jake Muzzin has scored two goals in the opening round against the Lightning.  This season in 47 games, he had 14 points (three goals and 11 assists).   In 2021-22, Muzzin delivered 105 hits and blocked 60 shots. 

Goalie Jack Campbell, who missed time this season due to a rib injury started 47 games this year.  In his third season in Toronto, he was 31-9-6 with a .914 save percentage, a 2.64 GAA and five shutouts. Campbell played poorly on Sunday and was pulled in the second period after allowing five goals on 16 shots. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Picks & Prediction

During the regular season, Tampa Bay scored 3.5 goals per game, ranking them eighth in the NHL.  On the defensive side, the Lightning allowed 2.8 goals per game which was sixth in the league.  Tampa Bay is 10-5 in their last 15 games when playing in Toronto against the Maple Leafs.  The Maple Leafs scored 3.8 goals per game during the regular season, second in the NHL.  Defensively Toronto allowed 3.1 goals per game, 19thoverall.  The Maple Leafs are 5-2 in their last seven games.

Tampa Bay has shown that they’re able to come big the last two seasons, while Toronto has been unable to win critical playoff games; including blowing a 3-1 series lead to Montreal last season.   I’m going with the Lightning to win the important fifth game of the series, 5-3 with the teams combining to score over 6.5 goals. 

Tampa Bay Lightning Vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Starting Goalies & Line Combination

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Scott is graduate of Hofstra University and has worked in the sports media for over 20 years as a Producer and Writer. His dream is to see the New York Jets one day hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy. He lives outside of Chicago with his wife and two children.

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