TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Betting Odds & Predictions (10/8/22)

It’s Week 6 of the College Football season. The slate is packed. The Red River Showdown is this weekend. Auburn plays Georgia. Texas A&M plays Alabama. Ohio State plays Michigan State.

College Gameday is in Lawrence for the biggest game of the weekend: Undefeated TCU vs undefeated Kansas.

This is so surreal. But it’s true. Jalon Daniels leads the most electric offense in the nation in the nation. The Horned Frogs just crushed Oklahoma.

While both teams are finally ranked, the markets are not yet buying into Kansas. The Jayhawks are seven-point home underdogs.

Is it time to sell high on Kansas? Or will the Jayhawks continue to surprise everyone?

Let’s break it down. Read on for our TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Broncos odds, picks, and predictions.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Odds

The sharp money has hit TCU hard. This line opened at TCU -4.5 but quickly moved to TCU -7. I doubt the line moves up any further from there, but it might.

The under has taken some sharp money but I think the over is the stronger play.

Let’s dive in a little more.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Prediction & Pick

With TCU and Kansas, you’re getting two of the most consistent and explosive offenses in the nation.

For TCU, it starts in the run game with quarterback Max Duggan and three running backs that are averaging over seven yards per carry. The entire team is averaging seven yards per rush play. Duggan has been great and avoiding turnovers, but he doesn’t have to do much when his team continues to plow over opponents. The Horned Frogs lead the nation in EPA per rush play.

But don’t get confused, Duggan can still sling it.

TCU's offense is averaging 9 yards per play on first down, best in FBS.

That's 8.15 yards per rush, 13.1 yards per completion.

Also: Max Duggan has been an 85% passer on first downs.

That is…quite good!

— Max Olson (@max_olson) October 3, 2022

Overall, nobody has more yards per play this season than the Horned Frogs.

All of Kansas’s offensive success comes from the quarterback position. Daniels is a Heisman candidate. He’s accounted for 1000 yards passing at 9.2 yards per attempt and 335 yards rushing at 7.3 yards per carry. He’s added 16 scores – 11 throwing and five rushing – with just one total turnover.

The Jayhawks use Daniels in a lot of RPO, motion, and play-action looks to confuse defenses. So far, nobody has caught up.

But it’s not like he can’t make throws on his own.

Jalon Daniels (and Kansas) are so fun pic.twitter.com/twxrrq2zt3

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) September 24, 2022

Meanwhile, both defenses have struggled.

TCU has been a disaster in the red zone and – often because of the scheme – is very vulnerable to explosive plays. They are actually the worst defense in the nation in preventing explosive pass plays.

But TCU has been successful in stopping enough drives in Standard Downs and Passing Downs to be effective.

Meanwhile, Kansas has been horrific in stopping consistent offensive drives. Specifically in Standard Downs. That’s why West Virginia’s underrated rushing attack dropped 42 points on the Jayhawks.

The number is so high, but neither defense has been effective in preventing points once the offense passes the 50-yard line. Meanwhile, both offenses are top-25 nationally in putting up points once they cross the opponent’s 50.

College Gameday wouldn’t show up for a boring game. I’m taking the over.

TCU Horned Frogs vs Kansas Jayhawks Key Matchups

Key Matchup: TCU’s Secondary vs Kansas’s RPO and Play-Action plays

The one area where TCU has seen success is in the secondary. The Frogs rank top-40 nationally in PFF’s Coverage grades and top-25 in Pass Success Rate allowed.

But nobody has stopped Daniels yet. And TCU will likely struggle to get pressure on him. The secondary is going to have to play smart, disciplined football to avoid getting tricked and avoid chunk plays down the field.

Otherwise, you’re going to see lots of this.

https://twitter.com/cfbsharps1/status/1571266056341143554?s=21&t=qEmBNgPhu8Ho2quY5UV3Gg