TCU vs Baylor Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/19/22)

TCU visits Baylor in a huge rivalry game. TCU continues to prove people wrong and just beat Texas last week in a close game, while Baylor just lost in a blow out to Kansas State. This should be an interesting matchup that has College Football Playoff implications. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this game!

TCU vs. Baylor Odds

TCU is a 2.5-point road favorite against Baylor and is also at -140 on the money line. The over/under is also at 58. TCU being this low of a favorite doesn’t make a ton of sense, because TCU looks very good after beating Texas last week and Baylor got ran out of their own stadium against Kansas State. However, a rivalry game like this usually is competitive and the Baylor crowd is going to be crazy for this game. The over/under make sense because TCU has a very good offense and so does Baylor. This spread has already gone down a bit, so keep an eye on if it moves anymore.

TCU vs. Baylor Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Baylor +2.5

TCU has been bet against all year, and while they have proven a lot of people wrong, this seems like the perfect weekend for it to come crashing down. Baylor is a a decent team that hasn’t quite hit the expectations it had at the beginning of the year. The Bears have a very good defense that has the ability to play very well against an offense that is as explosive as TCU’s is. They give up 25 points and 360 total yards a game which is decent for a team in the Big 12, where there’s good offenses for almost every team.

The Baylor offense could be better but they are efficient enough, especially on the ground, where they can cause issues for TCU and stay on the field and keep the explosiveness of the Horned Frogs off the field. TCU has exceeded all of their expectations from before the year with Sonny Dykes in his first year. He’s transformed this offense into one of the better units in the country and they average 41 points and 486 total yards a game on the year. These two teams don’t like each other and the fact that it’s in Baylor helps a lot too. Take the Bears here, in a rivalry spot, at home. Situationally, it all lines up very well for Baylor against TCU.

TCU vs. Baylor Key Matchups

Can TCU slow down Richard Reese? Can Baylor slow down Max Duggan?

Richard Reese vs the TCU Front Seven

Richard Reese is the bell cow for this Baylor offense. He has 165 carries, 852 rushing yards, and 13 rushing touchdowns on the year. The most he’s rushed for in a game this year was against Kansas at 186 yards. TCU is not great against the run and allows 135 rushing yards a game. Reese is easily the key for the Baylor offense, so if he can’t get anything going then Baylor is going to have a very tough time in this game as a whole.

Max Duggan vs the Baylor Secondary

Max Duggan has played with a chip on his shoulder ever since he got to TCU. This year he didn’t even start until an injury forced him into action. He’s taken the job and hasn’t looked back. He has 2,531 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns, two interceptions, and he has a 66% completion percentage on the year. Duggan has become the main key for this offense to tick this year too. Baylor is not great against the pass and allows 227 passing yards a game. If Baylor can’t contain Duggan and the passing game, then it’s going to be a long day for Bears against TCU.