TCU vs. Kansas Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/11/22)
We are now in the semifinal round of the Big 12 Tournament. The TCU Horned Frogs had an incredible upset win over the Texas Longhorns 65-60. They came back from an 18 point deficit at halftime to find themselves in the semifinals. The Kansas Jayhawks took an easy win over the West Virginia Mountaineers 87-63 to make their expected appearance in the third round of the tournament. Both of these teams have won a game against each other and have weapons to break their opponent, so this game should be the most interesting in the Big 12 Tournament to date. They’re set to play on Friday, March 11th, with tip-off at 6:00 PM CST and can be viewed on ESPN2.
TCU vs. Kansas Betting Odds
Going into this matchup, there is a significant favor towards the Jayhawks’ victory. They are the top seed in this tournament and are ranked amongst the top 10 in the nation, but they seem to have a weakness for TCU. The spread has been placed -8 (-110) for Kansas and +8 (-110) for TCU. The Horned Frogs were able to beat the Jayhakks 74-64 in their first meeting and only lost 72-68 in their second meeting. Kansas is notorious for their exceptional play in the postseason rounds, so these odds could be easily accomplished if Ochai Agbaji is on fire. However, TCU was able to take down the Texas Longhorns which can provide them with a fire inside. TCU has the skill and ability to take down this Kansas team if they can clean up some turnovers and tighten some shots. They’ve done it before so it can happen again. The Jayhawks were also given a moneyline of -400 and the Horned Frogs were given +300. I don’t think it’s a bad bet to go for TCU. They have been unpredictable all year and have pulled off upsets I never thought were possible. However, if you prefer a safer option, I would take TCU covering the spread and the Kansas moneyline.
My Prediction: Kansas Wins 74-72, TCU Covers
TCU Horned Frogs Odds
The Horned Frogs entered the Big 12 Tournament in the number five seed, but proved that they could have taken the four seed. They defeated the Texas Longhorns in a close match to advance to the semifinals. TCU and Kansas have already played twice this season, resulting in a split in the series. Both games were held to point margins under 10 points, so they’re very well matched. In both games against the two teams, TCU was unbeatable for rebounds. When they were victorious, they came down with 47 rebounds compared to Kansas’ 35. The TCU defense is especially strong because of their forward Emanuel Miller and center Eddie Lampkin who average six rebounds per game. The two players are essential to the Horned Frogs’ defense with their size and strength.
Offensively, the sophomore guard, Mike Miles will be the leading man. He averages 15 points per game but only shoots 38% from the field. He is also sinking about one third of his three-point attempts. In fact, he even went 2-2 against Kansas in their first meeting. Emanuel Miller will be another key TCU player to keep an eye out for. Miller averages 10.5 points per game, but averages 14.5 points against Kansas. On the season, he shoots 49.5% from the field, but against the Kansas defense, it increases to 53.8%. Miller will help lockdown the defense as well as keep the offense with momentum. The junior forward is a star and I project that he will shine against Kansas yet again.
The Horned Frogs’ weakness against Kanas is found in their turnovers. In both meetings with Kansas, they turned the ball over 15 times. Giving Kansas the extra opportunities to score off of mistakes, is the worst thing the Frogs can do for their chances of a Championship appearance. If they can clean up their turnovers, this game might turn purple.
Kansas Jayhawks Odds
The Kansas Jayhawks plowed past the West Virginia Mountaineers to find themselves in the semifinals of the Big 12 Tournament. This is no surprise since they are the number one overall seed in the tournament, so getting to round three was highly anticipated for this team. As they prepare to face the TCU Horned Frogs, this game could fall either way. Both teams have one loss and one victory over the regular season against each other, so this is the final test to see who is the elite team that’s going to take on either the Oklahoma Sooners or Texas Tech Red Raiders.
As soon as the brackets for the Big 12 came out, I was waiting for the TCU v. Kansas meeting and was hoping the bracket would allow for me to see it. The offensive and defensive strengths of both teams conflict, so we see some great basketball. One of the best shooters in the Big 12, Ochai Agbaji, will be the leading man for the Jayhawks’ offense. Agbaji averages an astonishing 19.7 points per game with a 47.7% accuracy rate. Ochai did not have his best season performances against TCU. In the first meeting, he shot only 23.8% from the field, securing 13 points. The Horned Frogs were anticipating the highly run Agbaji offense, so they applied significant pressure to stop the senior guard. The Jayhawks were able to defeat the Horned Frogs when Agbaji shot 42.1% for 22 points in their second meeting. This team relies on Agbaji’s high points to take home wins and without it, there becomes a hole on the offense. The team needs to work on more versatility in order to take down TCU. The Horned Frogs are ready for a one-man show, so the Jayhawks should run some high screens for availability under the basket to keep TCU guessing.
TCU vs. Kansas Picks and Predictions
This game will be all about the play of Ochai Agbaji and the TCU defense. These two assets on either team make for explosive play, so it will come down to if Agbaji can avoid the defensive pressure or if the defense can stop him early in the game. Part of my gut is saying TCU can pull this off, but to play it safe, the TCU spread is an easier choice. I would also take the -115 odds on Mike Miles scoring over 13.5 points. He’s ready to rematch the Jayhawks, so he’s coming out firing on all cylinders.