Get Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans player prop picks & odds for the (12/31/23) matchup.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Player Prop Picks
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans kicks off this Sunday at 1:00pm EST in Houston Texas as a home game for the Texans. The Titans are currently a +4 underdog and +175 on the moneyline while the total is set at 44. Expect CJ Stroud to dazzle in his return while Devin Singletary and Tyjae Spears struggle to find rush production, all giving value as player props for this Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans matchup.
CJ Stroud Over 257.5 Passing Yards
It hasn’t been an easy path for the likely Offensive Rookie of the Year this year as CJ Stroud has had to deal with playing behind an injury riddled offensive line, losing Tank Dell for the season, and sustaining injuries of his own. Still, amidst all the negative outside factors, Stroud has continued to play at an elite level and is capable of putting up stats against opposing secondaries with his poise and pinpoint accuracy in the pocket.
He will be in a position to do so once again as the Titans secondary has once again continued to play at a near league low rate. The Titans come into this contest ranked 25th in Def Pass DVOA, 30th in Def Pass EPA, and 29th in Def Pass Success Rate. An odd performance for a unit that was poised to improve once they got healthier yet that has remained to be the case.
That bodes well for CJ Stroud who makes his return from a concussion, leading the Texans to impressive marks in the pass attack in his first year under center. The CJ Stroud led Texans offense ranks 11th in Pass DVOA and 14th in Pass EPA. Success Rate has dipped to below average, yet the Titans will be vulnerable due to their poor rating as well.
CJ Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Stroud’s passing yardage over isn’t the only prop poised to cash as he will be in a good position to cash his passing touchdown over as well. Especially since the Texans may find themselves in scoring position at a routine rate, getting to take advantage of a weak Titans secondary with a hyper aggressive pass attack.
I think it was at this exact moment we all fully realized the caliber of a QB that we have in CJ Stroud pic.twitter.com/BKuCu2POl1
— Houston Xans (@HoustonXans) December 27, 2023
When in scoring position, maximizing on scoring chances is the best course of success and that will be passing against the Titans secondary. As previously mentioned, the Titans rank 30th in Def Pass EPA, meaning points are near automatic when backed up into the red zone. With the Titans being a good run stopping unit, an uptick in pass attempts plays towards this over as well.
Tyjae Spears Under 28.5 Rushing Yards
While Tyjae Spears has started to slowly carve out a legitimate role in the Titans offense, he still plays behind star running back Derrick Henry. Henry’s resurgence comes as no surprise as in the past few years he has built a trend where he runs wild in December, doing so once again to the demise of Spears rush attempts.
Not only is Spears seeing limited action, but the few attempts he will get when on the field may come against one of the best run stopping units in football. The Texans front seven has been dominant in their efforts to stop the run, coming into this contest ranked seventh in Def Rush DVOA, sixth in Def Rush EPA, second in Def Rush Success Rate, and second in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
The Adjusted Line Yards is especially intriguing, battling a unit that is league average at best in their efforts to push back and open up gaps in the trenches. Expect the running lanes to be clogged by the Texans front line, negating the Titans ground game to minimal success.
Devin Singletary Under 57.5 Rushing Yards
Tyjae Spears and the Titans ground game isn’t the only rushing unit poised to struggle in this game as the Texans and Devin Singletary will face their own challenges against the Titans front seven. While not exactly the same dominant metrics, the Titans front seven still ranks an impressive eighth in Def Rush DVOA, 13th in Def Rush Success Rate, 13th in Def Rush EPA, and 12th in Def Adjusted Line Yards.
Devin Singletary did a masterful job at revitalizing the Texans backfield after a string of underwhelming performances by Dameon Pierce. That said, he may be due for regression as the offensive line is once again dealing with injuries. Factor in CJ Stroud being in a position to shred the Titans secondary, and Singletary may see a decrease in carries as well.