Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans kicks off this Sunday (12/31/23) at 1:00pm EST in Houston Texas as a home game for the Texans. Get Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on the Texans moneyline as a valuable piece in a two team moneyline parlay.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Prediction & Best Bet
The AFC South has certainly gotten a lot more interesting since CJ Stroud has been gone from injury, now returning tied with the Jacksonville Jaguars atop the AFC South standings. With Trevor Lawrence dealing with a high ankle sprain and a concussion, the Jags hit a losing skid that saw their division lead vanish. With two weeks to go, as well as an easy schedule to finish out their year, the Texans are in a great position to leap over the Jags and secure the division title.
In order to do so, they will need to win out and that starts with a home date against the Tennessee Titans. At presumed full health as reports are indicating, Stroud is in a great position to thrive right away against a weak Titans secondary who has struggled in coverage all season long. The Titans back end currently ranks 25th in Def Pass DVOA, 30th in Def Pass EPA, and 29th in Def Pass Success Rate. Frustrating metrics on the Titans end when their front four has done their part, ranking fourth in Def Adjusted Sack Rate.
While Stroud is expected to thrive right out of the gate, their ground game will be in a position to struggle once again. That has been a thorn in their side early on this season, playing a large part to their poor metrics of 30th in Rush DVOA, 28th in Rush Success Rate, and 26th in Rush EPA. Their struggles seemed to have subsided once they promoted Devin Singletary to starting running back, giving their offense a much-needed boost against a stout Titans front seven.
Speaking of defending against the run, that has been a strength for the Texans defense and they will need every ounce of that production against Derrick Henry and his game changing running ability. The Texans metrics indicate they are in a great position to limit his production, ranking seventh in Def Rush DVOA, sixth in Def Rush EPA, second in Def Rush Success Rate, and second in Def Adjusted Line Yards. Expect the Texans front seven to continue to make contact in the backfield, slowing down Henry enough to contain his production.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Prediction & Best Bet: Texans Moneyline
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds
Given that initial reports listed CJ Stroud as out for this game due to his concussion, oddsmakers originally opened the Titans as a -1 favorite. Since reports have surfaced that Stroud is in a position to make his return after being able to practice, however, that number has reopened at -4.5 in the Texans favor and has been bet up to -5.5 as of writing.
As for the total, oddsmakers believed points would be scored at a moderate rate as they opened the number at 43. Bettors believe points will come at a slightly faster rate, backing the over up to 43.5 in some shops. With the Titans main source of offensive production being in a position to get bottled up, the total is a pass as there is too much uncertainty towards their contributions to the total.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Key Injuries
The Titans come into this one fairly healthy while notable names like CJ Stroud, Will Anderson Jr, and Nico Collins are listed as questionable on the Texans injury report.
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Key Matchups
Can the Texans secondary slow down the Titans pass attack?
Texans Secondary Vs. Titans Pass Attack
Whether it’s Ryan Tannehill or Will Levis for a majority of the contest, the Texans secondary will need to step it up to round out their defense. Good coverage has been a rarity for this unit, ranking 27th in Def Pass DVOA, 21st in Def Pass Success Rate, and 23rd in Def Pass EPA.
Ryan Tannehill dealing in Week 2 pic.twitter.com/yKuyApOqQq
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) September 19, 2023
While staying in coverage has been an issue, they have gotten the benefit of their front four’s ability to generate pressure at the fifth heaviest rate while blitzing at a near league lowest rate. That gives them extra bodies in coverage across the middle, clogging passing windows while getting extra time to recognize the run and crash down the lanes.