Get Titans vs Dolphins player prop picks & odds for the 12/11/23 matchup.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins Player Prop Picks
Just because this week’s matchup between the red-hot Miami Dolphins and the sinking Tennessee Titans is projected to be a blowout in terms of the final score doesn’t mean we can’t find value in the arena of player props. There are still mega-stars like Tyreek Hill taking the field, as well as younger talents like Tyjae Spears.
The Dolphins will be playing with a lead, but with a great run defense on the Tennessee side of things, they’ll still be breaking out the aerial fireworks, while the Titans will need to run the rock even if they’re trailing. Let’s get into some Dolphins vs. Titans player props for their Monday Night Football (12/11/23) matchup.
Tyreek Hill Over 104.5 Receiving Yards (-115) and Longest Reception Over 31.5 Yards (-115)
Hill is having an unbelievably special season. Currently, he’s on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving yardage record. He’s on track to break it by the 16th game of the season, matching Johnson’s feat from the previous schedule format. Hill isn’t on pace to crack the 2,000 yard mark by Week 16, but it’s definitely possible. He’s likely to do it a week later, which would make him the first-ever pass catcher to do so.
His per-game yardage average of 123.4 is comfortably the league’s best, and his average of 15.9 yards per catch is also well above the mean, even among the league’s best receivers. Hill has cracked the yardage total given for this game in seven of his outings thus far, and one of the misses was by just a couple of yards.
This isn’t always the case with receivers, but he’s been relatively blowout-proof too. Most of his substandard games have been against great defenses, rather than games where Miami pulled away early and stopped throwing. This is in large part because when the Dolphins do build a big lead, Hill is a huge reason why, and this game should be no exception.
Tennessee’s run defense is great. It’s the league’s best by DVOA, and should be a tough nut to crack even with Jeffery Simmons injured. Conversely, their air defense is awful, 30th in the league by the same metric. The Dolphins should be going to the air early, often and with great effectiveness. Given his gamebreaking ability, and the Titans’ propensity to give up big plays, Hill could hit this in as few as two or three receptions.
Speaking of those big plays, 31.5 is a fairly low bar to set for Hill’s biggest play of the day. He’s cracked that number in eight games thus far, and in more than half of his outings, he’s been over 40 for his longest catch. Against a defense of this caliber, expect Hill to go missing for at least one gargantuan gain on Monday night.
Tyjae Spears Over 4.5 Rushing Attempts (-115) and Longest Rush Over 8.5 Yards (-115)
With Derrick Henry back, Spears isn’t going to see quite the same volume he did last week in by far his biggest performance of the season. But besides the fact that it’s unclear if the Titans legend is 100% ready for his usual workload, the trust the team showed in the rookie is encouraging. Even given his previous production, Spears has cleared the number of 4.5 carries in five games other than the most recent one, and he’s been at exactly four in three others, so he’s spent the whole season near or above this total.
Spears could have a really nice day against a Dolphins run defense that has not improved nearly as much as the team’s pass prevention unit. The ground defense for Miami is still 20th in the league by both DVOA and success rate, and a less-rosy 27th by EPA. Given that contrast to a drastically-improved pass defense, which routinely clamps down on lower-tier air offenses like the Titans’ 30th-ranked unit by DVOA, expect Tennessee to go ground-heavy as long as they’re able.
If they intend to do that without leaning unduly on Henry, Spears will need to have a role. He’s been great this year, averaging an even 5.0 yards per carry, so he’s definitely earned his spot. Spears has ripped off a run of at least 12 yards in eight of his 12 appearances this year, and in two of the four remaining contests, his longest run was exactly eight yards; once again, right below the given total.
Given his track record and the mismatches between the Titans offense and Dolphins defense, expect Spears to be involved enough to at least crack these modest numbers.
Andrew Van Ginkel Over 0.25 Sacks (-110)
Van Ginkel is due for a sack. He hasn’t picked one up in seven games, but he had four in the previous four, a more accurate show of his pass rushing acumen. His past two games have been the best of his entire season as per PFF, who gave him grades of 90.3 and 89.3 for the two outings. But he didn’t record a sack in either one. That allows us to buy extremely low on a player who is putting in great performances – a really good combination.
It’s also a great setting for Van Ginkel to get back in the sack column. If the Titans do fall behind and go to the air, he’ll have plenty of chances. But even if they stay true to the ground game, the Miami pass rush has an edge. They rank just 28th in blitz rate but first in the entire league in pressure rate- a testament to the effectiveness of D-linemen like Van Ginkel.
Conversely, the Titans’ offensive line ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate, a metric in which Miami’s D-line ranks seventh. It’s a perfect situation for some sacks of Will Levis, and there’s no reason Van Ginkel can’t be the one to do it.