Tennessee vs Arkansas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/19/22)
Contents
Tennessee vs Arkansas Betting Odds
Two of the hottest teams in the SEC will face off Saturday when the Tennessee Volunteers visit the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Tennessee is riding a five-game win streak most recently capped off by a huge win over Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Arkansas has won 10 of its last 11 games, including taking down No. 1 Auburn. The Hogs only loss came in a one-point affair at Alabama.
Tennessee will be a different kind of test for the Hogs. Can they handle it?
Tennessee Volunteers Odds
Everything for Tennessee revolves around its defense. The Vols are fourth nationally in defensive efficiency but are particularly adept at causing havoc. The Vols are seventh nationally in defensive turnover rate and third in steal rate.
Tennessee has gotten some bad breaks in conference play, however. Teams are making over 35% of 3-point attempts against Tennessee in SEC play, which ranks 11th out of 14 teams. I’d expect some regression in that area and for Tennessee to see its defensive metrics jump even more.
That’s a scary thought given Tennessee is 10-3 in SEC play, good for third in the conference.
The offense has been surprisingly good, as the Vols are fourth in the SEC in effective field goal percentage. Kennedy Chandler has picked up his game, scoring more but also becoming a more effective playmaker. His 32.7% assist rate is top-30 among all D-I players.
HE'S TAKING OVER.
📺 @SECNetwork
📲 https://t.co/hFbWQAH0AR pic.twitter.com/nxrgGYovTJ— Tennessee Basketball (@Vol_Hoops) February 13, 2022
Santiago Vescovi has been lights out shooting the ball. He’s shooting 40% from 3 and scoring over 1.1 points per possession in spot-up opportunities. His shooting is a big reason why the Vols are seeing so much success.
Arkansas Razorbacks Odds
Arkansas does this every season. The team starts slow and then heats up in the second half of the season.
Somehow, Arkansas has snuck up to first in the conference in defensive efficiency. Among SEC teams, the Hogs are:
- Second in effective field goal percentage allowed
- Second in defensive turnover rate
- Second in 2-point defense
- Second in 3-point defense
- Fourth in steal rate.
Arkansas is doing everything right.
Offensively, everything circles around JD Notae, who takes 32% of the team’s shots. He has been on a tear during this winning streak, scoring at least 17 points in every game except the Alabama loss.
Notae can shoot the lights out, and he has a flair for the dramatic.
https://twitter.com/espn/status/1491228360961249281?s=21
Tennessee vs Arkansas Prediction and Pick
My pick: Tennessee +2 (-110 at FanDuel)
Arkansas’ stock may never be higher. The Hogs have covered in five straight games and are 9-1 against the spread in the last 10.
That’s why I’d like to sell-high and buy the Volunteers.
Rick Barnes has taken down Eric Musselman in four of the last five meetings. Additionally, Barnes’ Vols are 7-2 against the spread on the road this season.
These are similar teams. Both are defensive-minded teams who rely on one primary playmaker on offense. However, I think Chandler has better secondary weapons – particularly Vescovi – and a better built roster around him.
That will prove to be the difference in this game. Tennessee wins this road game outright and inches closer to top spot in the SEC.
But I’ll happily take the two points.
