Tennessee vs. Colorado: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (12/4/21)

Tennessee vs. Colorado Betting Odds

While Tennessee did pull out a signature win over North Carolina, it also got shredded by Villanova. Meanwhile, Colorado beat Stanford but lost to UCLA in its first big test of the season. Otherwise, these teams have played all sub-170 KenPom opponents.

So, with limited top-tier information on either team, how do we handicap this game?

Tennessee Volunteers Odds 

In all honestly, I don’t trust Tennessee.

The team is highly valued because of its defense, which was particularly dominant last season and has been very good so far (12th in defensive efficiency). However, last season’s Tennessee team went 10-7 in SEC play, lost to Alabama in the SEC tournament, and then was upset in the first round by Oregon State.

So, when the Vols were just one-point underdogs to Villanova, I hammered the Wildcats. Jay Wright’s offense ran right through the Volunteers, mostly by lights-out perimeter shooting.

While Villanova is one of the best shooting teams in the nation, lousy perimeter defense has become a theme for Tennessee this season. The Vols are allowing 1.009 points per possession in spot-up situations so far, which ranks in just the 14th percentile of college teams. Plus, the team is just 273rd in 3-point defense (36.4%).

But Tennessee was also ranked highly in the pre-season because of its improved offensive weapons. That prophecy has come true, as freshman Kennedy Chandler runs an offense that’s top-50 in effective field goal percentage (54.9%), top-60 in turnover rate (16.3%), and 24th in overall offensive efficiency.

Colorado Buffaloes Odds

Ted Boyle is one of the Pac-12’s longest-tenured coaches, and he lifted Colorado to previously unforeseen heights last season.

Unfortunately, he has a tough job this season. Replacing McKinley Wright IV and other senior players has hindered the ceiling for this team.

But there’s enough young talent on the team to get this team into the dance for the second-straight year.

Jabari Walker and Tristan Da Silva in particular. Both broke out in their freshmen seasons, and this year the two are combining for 28 points and 12 rebounds per game, and both have an ORtg above 110.

Evan Battey and Keeshawn Barthelemy also have contributed significantly on the offensive end.

As you may have inferred, three of those four players are frontcourt weapons, and all are also over 6-foot-8. As a result, almost all the Buffalo offense comes from inside the arc, with only 29.6% of their shots coming from 3 (326th nationally).

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Colorado +3 or better

While Colorado isn’t particularly efficient underneath the rim, it’s been excellent at getting to the line. Colorado is 11th nationally in free-throw rate (44.3% FTA/FGA) and almost a quarter of their points come from the charity stripe, which is 15th nationally.

That’s something the Volunteers are particularly weak at. Tennessee gets to the line at the fourth lowest rate in the country, although the team makes a high percentage of them.

Either way, that’s where I see the edge in this game. As a home dog, the Buffaloes are the smart play. Especially considering Colorado has the best home-court advantage in the country, with the elevation at Boulder often suffocating teams.

But if Colorado plays decent enough defense, the free throws will keep this game tight.

Therefore, I’ll take Colorado if it’s catching a few points.