Tennessee vs Kentucky: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/12/22)

Tennessee vs Kentucky Betting Odds

Tennessee has been a wrecking ball in the second half of the season. Since starting SEC play 3-3, the Vols are 12-2. Tennessee has beaten all the top teams in the SEC, and I have them projected as a two-seed in the big dance.

But Kentucky is similarly dominant. The Wildcats have one of the best offenses in the country, led by Oscar Tshiebwe and a tandem of talented guards.

These teams split the season series, with each team winning at home.

So which team has the advantage on a neutral court? Especially with a trip to the SEC championship on the line.

Tennessee Volunteers Odds

Rick Barnes-led teams are defensive-minded.

And Tennessee has been that for years. This season, Tennessee is third nationally in defensive efficiency, specifically dominating in the turnover department. The Vols are sixth in steal rate and 12th in defensive turnover rate.

But the offense has taken a major step forward this season, and that’s a big reason for the success.

Kennedy Chandler has transformed Tennessee. And given he’s a freshman, it’s obvious that Tennessee improved as the season progressed. He’s the highest usage Tennessee player and is top-50 nationally in assist rate on offense and top-50 nationally in steal rate on defense.

Meanwhile, John Fulkerson and Santiago Vescovi shoulder the scoring load. Fulkerson dominates on the interior and crashes the offensive boards, while Vescovi shoots 40% from 3. Both have an ORtg above 115.

This is a dangerous Tennessee team that’s ninth in the NET rankings with nine Quad 1 wins.

I might consider Tennessee in National Championship futures markets.

Kentucky Wildcats Odds

Tshiebwe is averaging 15 rebounds per game while leading the nation in both offensive and defensive rebounding rate. He’s putting together the greatest rebounding season of all time. While also averaging 17.3 points per game and leading the race for National Player of the Year.

He also has Kentucky in line for a one-seed.

With Auburn and Baylor fumbling in the conference tournaments, Kentucky just has to win the SEC Tournament to clinch a one-seed. Kentucky generally owns this tournament anyway, but that must be exciting for John Calipari.

Kentucky is deserving of a one-seed. It went 9-6 in Quad 1 opportunities and 16-0 in Quad 2 through Quad 4 opportunities, finishing the season third in the NET.

And the Wildcats are elite statistically in every other category. Kentucky is top-30 nationally in both effective field goal percentage and effective field goal percentage allowed.

The only area where Kentucky struggles is in the turnover department. Kentucky is good at avoiding offensive turnovers, but the Wildcats don’t force a lot of turnovers on defense.

We’ll see how that plays out against a turnover-happy Tennessee team.

Tennessee vs Kentucky Prediction and Pick

My pick: Tennessee +1.5 or better

I think Kentucky is slipping a bit.

Since losing to Arkansas, the Wildcats have defeated Mississippi, Florida, and Vanderbilt. All three of those mediocre teams kept it within 10 against the vaunted Wildcats.

Kentucky is going to get a wake-up call against a Tennessee team that is hot. Tennessee beat Auburn and Arkansas in its last four regular-season games, so the Vols are fine-tuned and sharp.

I’ll take the Vols with momentum against the Wildcats who almost blew a game to Vanderbilt. I also will happily take the points in what is sure to be a hard-nosed SEC battle.