Tennessee vs. LSU: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/8/22)

Tennessee vs. LSU Betting Odds

Welcome to the biggest defensive battle in college hoops.

The Volunteers and the Tigers are the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country in defensive efficiency, respectively. On the back of those defenses, the two have compiled a combined 23-4 record to this point in the season.

However, both have dropped one of their first two conference games. So, this game is quite meaningful for an early-season conference battle.

But which defense has the edge?

Tennessee Volunteers Odds

Let’s examine the Vols defense first.

Tennessee is particularly active on the defensive end. The Vols rank 11th in turnover rate and third in steal percentage, and they are uber-efficient against cuts (.986 PPP allowed, 85th percentile) and hand-offs (.425 PPP allowed, 97th percentile).

Given the Two through Four in the lineup stand between 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-6, it’s hard for downhill wings to get any offense going.

However, you can crack the Vols from the perimeter. Tennessee ranks outside the top-100 in 3-point defense (31.5%) and outside the top-150 in spot-up points per possession allowed (.859). That’s likely because the backcourt is slightly undersized.

However, the backcourt carries Tennessee on the offensive end. Specifically, freshman point guard Kennedy Chandler.

The Memphis product has stepped in as the Vols highest-usage player and has given Rick Barnes the consistent offensive presence he’s missed over the past few years. He’s dropping over 13 points per game while dishing out over five dimes per game.

The biggest recipient of those dimes is junior guard Santiago Vescovi, who’s the team’s leader in spot-up opportunities. He isn’t overly efficient with those opportunities, but he has made 37 of his 103 3-point attempts this season (36%).

The Vols have wins over Arizona and UNC, but they’ve dropped their other three big opportunities against Alabama, Texas Tech, and Villanova. This game could be important for Tennessee come March.

LSU Tigers

Tennessee’s defense is good, but LSU’s is the best in the nation.

The Tigers pace the nation in defensive efficiency while ranking top-10 in the following areas:

– Points per possession allowed (first)
– Defensive effective field goal percentage (fourth)
– Defensive turnover rate (sixth)
– 3-point defense (10th)
– 2-point defense (10th)
– Block rate (eighth)
– Steal rate (first)

The Tigers are also especially strong in three areas:

– Defending transition buckets (.615 points per possession allowed, first)
– Defending the pick-and-roll (.357 points per possession allowed, first)
– Defending post-up situations (.448 points per possession allowed, first)

When opposing offenses can’t get out in transition, run the pick-and-roll, or generate post-up opportunities, that takes away three of the easiest bucket-generating opportunities in the game. There are almost no options outside of isolation drives or contested jump shots.

Offensively, Wade runs an interior-based offense that runs through his two lengthy wings. Tari Eason and Darius Days combine for over 30 points per game on close to 60% from 2-point range. Days will shoot the deep ball, but the whole team is 271st in 3-point rate (33.9% 3PA/FGA).

The offense isn’t overly efficient, and the Tigers work very quickly. However, the team makes over 50% of 2-point attempts and is likely due for some positive 3-point regression.

Tennessee vs. LSU Prediction and Pick

My pick: LSU -3 (-110 at PointsBet)

I’m a proud member of Tennessee Faders Anonymous, as I don’t truly believe the Vols are a top-tier basketball team.

The story was the same last season. Tennessee had unbelievable defensive metrics, and coach Barnes could lead this team on a deep tournament run. But the Vols faded in big moments, and their season ended in the first round.

Offensively, Chandler is the real deal. But he’s facing the best defense in the nation, and one that will dominate him if he tries to dribble penetrate.

Moreover, Tennessee is just 1-4 against the spread as an underdog this season. LSU is 11-2 against the spread as a favorite and 9-1 against the spread at home.

This is a no-brainer pick for me.