Tennessee vs. Missouri Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/11/23)

Tennessee obliterated UConn last weekend, but it could be a quick snap back to reality with a tough Missouri team on the docket in Week 11. Let’s dive into the odds and best bets for Saturday’s matchup.

Tennessee vs. Missouri Prediction & Best Bet

Missouri is a fun team to watch thanks to Brady Cook’s connection with Luther Burden III. But Tennessee has a strong case to be the more well-rounded team in this matchup. The Volunteers’ defense has taken a meaningful step forward from last season, boasting a terrific run defense and a capable pass defense.

Missouri will look to attack Tennessee through the air, likely with Burden if he’s fully healthy. But opposing defenses have found a way to contain Burden in recent weeks. If the Vols can do that, they have a huge advantage in this game.

Joe Milton III’s inconsistency has hurt Tennessee at times this season, but a strong rushing attack has held the offense together. With Missouri’s run defense ranking below some of the units Jaylen Wright and the running game have already trampled, that could be a vulnerable spot for the Tigers.

If Milton disappoints, this game should swing toward Missouri. Given the Tigers’ shaky pass defense, however, Milton should be able to ride last week’s momentum and do just enough alongside the running game to outlast Missouri on the road. Tennessee moneyline or Tennessee -1.5 are both strong bets for Saturday’s game.

Tennessee vs. Missouri Prediction & Best Bet: Tennessee Moneyline (-110)

Tennessee vs. Missouri Best Betting Odds

Tennessee is a slight 1-point favorite on the road, entering even on the moneyline at -110. The over/under is 58.5 points.

Missouri had a chance to become the favorite in this one with a win over unbeaten Georgia, but the Tigers couldn’t climb all the way back against the Bulldogs. Still, it was a gritty performance that serves as a reminder of why Tennessee might be vulnerable in this matchup.

Tennessee vs. Missouri Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Saturday’s game between Tennessee and Missouri.

Luther Burden III vs. Tennessee secondary

There might be no bigger talent on the field than Luther Burden III on Saturday. The Missouri receiver is the early favorite to be the top WR off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft, and he would have a strong case to be an early first-round pick if he were eligible after this season.

Burden has 958 yards and seven touchdowns through nine games this season. He’s been a bit quieter of late with only 55 yards per game over his last three. Still, Burden torched Georgia’s defense for a score in the first quarter last weekend.

Tennessee’s secondary is fine, but 6.7 yards per attempt allowed is considerably worse than Georgia’s pristine mark of 5.6. Burden briefly left with an injury vs. Georgia before returning. If he truly has shaken it off, Tennessee will have to focus serious energy on limiting his playmaking ability.

Tennessee Rushing Attack vs. Missouri Run Defense

Joe Milton III entered the season with high expectations, but he’s been hit-or-miss in his lone season as Tennessee’s starter. The Vols’ running game has proven to be the real x-factor for the offense.

Tennessee is 6-0 when Jaylen Wright rushes for 100+ yards and 1-2 when he doesn’t. Both Alabama and Florida held him under 4 yards per carry, but he’s been remarkably efficient outside of those games. Can Missouri contain Wright and Dylan Sampson, who has been an effective change-of-pace back alongside him?

The Tigers are allowing 4.0 yards per carry, which is 10th out of 14 SEC teams. It’s not a genuinely concerning mark, necessarily, but Tennessee’s running game has been effective against better run defenses this season.

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