Tennessee vs Texas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (1/29/22)

Tennessee vs Texas Betting Odds

This is my least-favorite SEC-Big 12 challenge matchup.

I don’t believe in Tennessee. I think the defense is overrated and the offense hasn’t been as good as advertised with Kennedy Chandler running the point.

Texas has been the most underwhelming team in the nation this season. It seems like Chris Beard is missing Mark Adams running the defense.

So, which underperforming team is better? And which one has the edge against the spread on Saturday?

Tennessee Volunteers Odds

I still believe Tennessee is overvalued. However, Rick Barnes has picked up some big wins recently.

The Vols have won three straight conference games to move to 5-3 in SEC play. That includes over LSU and Florida – two wins that are not to be undervalued.

The defense continues to force turnovers. The Vols are 10th nationally in defensive turnover rate and first in SEC play. The backcourt has been aggressive and pressuring the ball well.

However, when Tennessee doesn’t force turnovers, the Vols aren’t overly efficient defending shots. In SEC play, Tennessee is ninth in 2-point defense and dead-last in 3-point defense. Those numbers are likely due for regression, but it’s concerning.

It’s also a trend I’ve noticed over the past few seasons.

As mentioned, the offense is lacking behind freshman combo-guard Chandler. He leads the team in usage and scoring but has done so with just a 102 ORtg. He’s great defensively and running the offense, but he is inefficient at scoring the ball.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

Put everything together, and Tennessee seems like a middling SEC team.

Image Credit: CBB Analytics

ESPN’s bracketologist Joe Lunardi still has Tennessee projected as a four-seed. So, hope is not lost in Knoxville. But I’m ready to fade this team when March comes.

Texas Longhorns Odds

Texas redeemed itself with a 23-point win over TCU. And the Longhorns looked very sharp in that game, like the team that was ranked top five in the preseason polls.

Texas can defend. The Longhorns are 27th in effective field goal percentage allowed and seventh in turnover rate. All in all, Beard’s squad is allowing just .731 points per possession in the half-court, which is better than all but seven teams.

Most impressive, however, is that Texas leads the nation in adjusted defensive Shot Quality.

Offensively is where Texas can get into trouble. While Tre Mitchell is getting his opportunities, the offense probably needs to run through Timmy Allen more. Marcus Carr needs to take fewer shots and distribute more – or at least get his shots in the flow of the offense.

the classic and one shoulder shrug

make it 17 points for Timmy Allen. pic.twitter.com/CWGSGWryCM

— Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) November 21, 2021

Hopefully, Texas will start to shoot a bit better. The Longhorns don’t shoot a lot of 3s (212th in 3-point rate) but are also sub-200 in 3-point shooting. I’m not calling for much regression in that area, but Beard and Co. could use it.

Also, the Texas offense will always be a bit inefficient from an analytics perspective. The Longhorns are 287th in rim-and-3 rate, ranking top-70 in the percentage of long 2-point jumpers taken. The Horns will live in the range, which isn’t ideal but works for teams like UCLA.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

Tennessee vs Texas Prediction and Pick

My pick: Texas -3 or better

Between two teams I don’t trust, I trust Texas more.

Texas can defend. I believe Texas can defend better than Tennessee can.

But the Longhorns also have more consistent ways to create shots than Tennessee does. Chandler is the Volunteer offense, but all five Longhorn starters can create their own shot.

The hope is that Allen gets most of those opportunities. He was the leading scorer against TCU and the Longhorns put up their best offensive performance of the season per offensive efficiency (128.6).

If coach Beard goes back to that game plan, Texas should win this convincingly.