Texas A&M vs Arkansas: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/12/22)

Texas A&M vs Arkansas Betting Odds

After losing nine of 10 in the middle of the SEC season, TAMU has won six straight games. Most recently, the Aggies upset No. 1 seeded Auburn to make their way to the SEC semifinals.

Meanwhile, Arkansas is looking like the best team in the SEC. The red-hot Hogs have ridden a stifling defense to a 14-2 record in the second half of the season.

Both teams have momentum, but which team has the edge?

Texas A&M Aggies Odds

Tyrece Radford couldn’t miss against Auburn. He finished with 19 points while shooting 5-for-6 from 3.

The Aggie team in general couldn’t miss. The Aggies shot 8-for-16 from deep as a team, while Auburn shot just 9-for-36, good for a 25% clip.

That would give me cause for concern. The Aggies could be due for some game-to-game regression.

TAMU will have to ramp up its interior defense. This team finished eighth nationally in defensive turnover rate and third in steal rate. But it only forced nine turnovers against Auburn, instead just shooting hot.

Arkansas isn’t known for turnovers, finishing second in the SEC in offensive turnover rate. But the Hogs aren’t an offensive powerhouse, as everything depends on JD Notae.

TAMU is due for more 3-point shooting regression, however. The Aggies finished second-to-last in the SEC in 3-point percentage this season, hitting just 29% of those shots. That’s drug down the Aggies offensive metrics.

Arkansas Razorbacks Odds

It’s become very hard to score on the Hogs. The Razorbacks allowed just a 45.2% 2-point percentage in conference play this season, which was second only to LSU.

Arkansas was also great allowing low-percentage 3-point shots by running opponents off the line. Plus, the Razorbacks forced plenty of turnovers.

The Hogs were just opportunistic and frisky, and the advanced metrics reflected that by the end of the season.

Forcing turnovers is huge for Arkansas because JD Notae is lights out in transition. Notae scored 1.076 points per possession in transition, which was well above average.

But not only is he athletic enough to drive downhill on any defender, he’s got limitless range from beyond the arc. Notae shot only 31.3% from 3, but he made some really important ones this season and kept defenses honest.

JD Notae is feeling it!

Arkansas up big on LSU. pic.twitter.com/b9lKKAcvMC

— Heat Check CBB (@HeatCheckCBB) March 11, 2022

Notae’s efficiency metrics weren’t great because he was such a high-usage player. Arkansas doesn’t have a lot of other shot makers, and so Notae carries the offensive load while the defense carries the rest.

Jaylin Williams became more and more important as the season went on. He ended the season among the top-30 D-I players in defensive rebounding rate and was a defensive menace.

Texas A&M vs Arkansas Prediction and Pick

Arkansas is already taking some sharp money, with only half the tickets on the Hogs but over 90% of the handle. The sharps have pushed this line up from a -6 opener to -6.5.

I’m happy to back the sharps in this spot.

TAMU is clearly due to come down from this hot streak and probably will have a letdown game after dominating Auburn. Auburn has been shaky in the second half of the season, Arkansas has not.

I’d play this up to -7.