Texas A&M Vs. Auburn: Odds, Picks, Predictions (1/25/23)

After amassing an impressive win streak, the Texas A&M Aggies success came to a halt after a date with the Kentucky Wildcats. Unable to get past their loaded talent, they now get a chance to get back on track against another impressive SEC team in the Auburn Tigers. Auburn was not on too many people’s radars as a serious SEC contender with the likes of Alabama and Tennessee looming, but their defense has led them to immediate success. Can they continue to roll against the Aggies?

Texas A&M Vs. Auburn Odds

Oddsmakers certainly think so as they opened the Tigers as a -5.5 favorite. Bettors were quick to back them as well, taking the Tigers up to as high as -6 in some shops as of writing. It has seen resistance, bouncing back down to -5.5 which brings some intrigue. The Auburn love comes as no surprise as they benefit from both a home court advantage as well as a scheme advantage as well. The Aggies success has come off the backs of their offense, now getting to dance against an elite Auburn defense.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a moderate pace as oddsmakers opened the total at 136. Bettors believe we may see an uptick in points, backing the over up to 137.5 as of writing. This comes as a bit of a surprise with the Aggies offense expected to struggle while the Auburn offense has struggled to find consistency. This is an immediate pass for me as of now, potentially giving interests towards the under should the number continue to climb higher.

Texas A&M Vs. Auburn Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Auburn -5.5

With that said, I will back Auburn at no higher than -6 as they should find consistent success on both ends of the court in a game where they have statistical advantages all over. They are currently second in the SEC standings and one game back from Alabama, making every game more vital in their quest for a regular season title. Especially for how loaded their conference is, making any bye they get in their conference tournament a necessity.

Their biggest strength is their defensive intensity, ranking 10th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency per Kenpom. They will need to be crisp once again on the defensive end as the Aggies pose as an offensive threat, ranking well above average in the league in efficiency and have a deep bench to constantly attack the Tigers. Texas A&M currently plays 10 players meaningful minutes with three of them in double digit scoring figures. 

Their offensive identity revolves around getting open looks at the rim as they have struggled to find consistency from the perimeter. They shoot a lowly 31.5% from three with no one in their starting lineup shooting above 36%. To combat poor shooting, they halt the offensive flow by setting up a halfcourt offense to create a look down low. They play at a snail’s pace with an Adjusted Tempo ranking of 216th in the nation.

This will not bode well for the Aggies as this plays exactly into the Tigers hands as they specialize in smothering looks at the rim. Auburn currently ranks near the top of the nation in opposing two-point percentage at the rim, as well as field goals as a whole. The Aggies already limit the amount of their own possessions, meaning each empty trip is detrimental to their chances of getting the upset victory.

Texas A&M Vs. Auburn Key Matchups

Can Auburn’s offense find life against a reeling Aggies defense?

Auburn interior scoring production vs Texas A&M paint defense

It’s no secret that the brunt of success belongs to the defense for the Auburn Tigers as their offense has struggled throughout the season for elite standards. The offense currently ranks 61st in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, thanks to no part of horrific perimeter shooting.

Like the Aggies, the Tigers rely on interior scoring to put points on the board as their three pointer has abandoned them. The Tigers currently shoot 29.9% from three as a team. Yikes.

The offense gets a chance to find success in this one and hopefully build some momentum as the Aggies defense has been reeling with a 67th ranked AdjD. Wendell Green Jr will be the go-to man once again, attacking the paint for pull ups or hitting his cutting men in open space.

Verdict

Back the Tigers at no higher than -6 as they have key advantages on both ends of the court in a crucial game for their SEC regular season title chances.