Texas A&M vs. LSU: Prediction & Odds (11/25/23)

Texas A&M’s regular season will come to a close at No. 14 LSU on Saturday (11/25/23). Get Texas A&M vs. LSU odds, picks and predictions below. Our best bet is over 66.5 points.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction

It’s been an absolutely brutal season for Texas A&M, which once again came in with high expectations and fell completely short. The team’s record sat as low as 5-4, and the next week, curiously after a massive 51-10 blowout win over Mississippi State, coach Jimbo Fisher was fired. While the timing is suspect, the program needs a fresh start.

LSU is only a game better than A&M record wise, but it feels very different. The Tigers are ranked 14th in the AP poll, and they’re led by Heisman candidate Jayden Daniels at quarterback. Daniels has tossed 36 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions, while completing 72.6% of his passes. He’s also run for 10 touchdowns and more than 1,000 yards, which alone would be a great season for a running back. So it’s hard to overstate how excellent he’s been as a dual threat.

All of that production hasn’t resulted in the team meeting expectations, but it’s not Daniels’s fault. The defense is one of the nation’s worst, making LSU perhaps the most-lopsided team in college football. They rank first in the country in offensive EPA per play, but bottom-five when it comes to defense.

The Tigers are a shootout factory, and betting their overs has been incredibly profitable this year. The total was set at 74.5 for their most-recent game against Georgia State, and the teams came up just short with 70. That marked the first under of the year in an LSU game.

The A&M defense is just about the best LSU has seen so far, and its offense is no juggernaut. So there’s a reason this total is a bit lower than what we usually see. Even so, there’s no way you can do anything but bet the over. Even against the elite Alabama defense, in a game where LSU was missing Daniels for part of the time, the Tigers hung 28 points, while Alabama contributed 42 for a total of 70. The total also got close with 66 in a game against a good Auburn defense despite little contribution from the other side.

As far as comparisons in A&M’s past, its matchup at Ole Miss is noteworthy. The game was on the road against a team with a great offense and mediocre defense. The Aggies lost, but the total climbed all the way to 73. This contest shouldn’t be too different, and we should get one last fun shootout as Daniels makes his final Heisman push.

When it comes to the spread, the number of 10.5 is not a great one for a favorite, and we definitely don’t want to back A&M. It’s hard to imagine that its motivation level is as high as LSU’s, as the Tigers still have a shot to make a prestigious bowl. The Tigers will want to help their quarterback win college football’s highest individual honor. Death Valley is an incredibly tough place to make your SEC head coaching debut, so nobody would fault Elijah Robinson if this one runs away from him.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction: Over 66.5 Points

Texas A&M vs. LSU Best Odds

LSU is favored by 10.5 points at home, giving a key hook to the Texas A&M side of the spread. LSU is -450 on the moneyline, while A&M has +340 odds to win. With the total set high at 66.5, both sides are -110.

Texas A&M vs. LSU Key Matchups

When you get granular, LSU has both the best rushing and passing offense in the country by EPA per play, due in large part to Daniels. It’ll be interesting to see how it does against A&M’s elite run defense. On the other side of things, the Aggies’ air game will look to carry the load.

LSU Rushing Offense vs. Texas A&M Run Defense

While Daniels is the team’s top rusher, and pass catchers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. get the most recognition on the LSU offense, Logan Diggs has been an effective back for the Tigers. He’s run for 5.6 yards per carry, with the help of an o-line that ranks fourth in PFF’s grades, anchored by star left tackle Will Campbell.

The A&M run defense ranks 23rd in PFF’s system and 11th by EPA per play. Walter Nolen is a standout talent on the defensive line. The real core of this unit is the superstar off-ball linebacker duo of Edgerrin Cooper and Taurean York.

Texas A&M Passing Game vs. LSU Air Defense

A&M is down to the third string at quarterback after Conner Weigman and then Max Johnson went out with injuries. Jaylen Henderson has been solid through the Mississippi State and Abilene Christian games. Those aren’t tough defenses, but neither is this. He could have another nice game. Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart have been the top targets for the Aggies, while their O-line ranks 12th in PFF’s pass blocking grade.

LSU’s secondary has been the issue. The pass rush ranks inside the top-25 of PFF’s grades, led by linebacker Harold Perkins with five sacks and edge Bradyn Swinson with a pass rush win rate of 15.5%. Perkins is also the top-graded coverage player on LSU per PFF. But safety Andre Sam has done well too, and leads the team with three picks.

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