Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State kicks off this Wednesday (12/27/23) at 9:00pm EST in Houston Texas as the host site for the Tax Act Texas Bowl. Get Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State predictions and best bets below as our best bet is on Oklahoma State -1.5 as their continuity gives them a massive edge in this game.
Texas A&M Vs. Oklahoma State Prediction
Wednesday’s nightcap features a battle between two teams trending in very different directions. While we can expect Oklahoma State to feature plenty of familiar faces, Texas A&M is currently dealing with massive losses with their starting production due to the transfer portal and opt outs. As of writing, the Aggies will be without 12 starters combined on both sides of the ball. For an updated list of transfers, opt outs, and injuries, you can read it all here.
Focusing on the Aggies transfers, they will be without starting quarterback Max Johnson who has already committed to North Carolina. That means Jaylen Henderson is expected to start, the Aggies third stringer who has already seen some time under center. While he played at a respectable rate earlier this year, he is now without his top two pass catchers at receiver and his right side of the offensive line.
That plays right into the Cowboys favor as they have struggled in certain areas of the defense and now get the benefit of the Aggies being prone to sputtering due to a lack of continuity. The Cowboys also excelled at limiting mid field production, ranking 47th in Def Success Rate which is vital as their production takes a massive dip when backed up into the red zone. Factor in the Cowboys retaining their starters as of writing and it should be expected that they play towards what their metrics indicate.
As for Oklahoma State’s offense, they received massive news when they heard that Ollie Gordon II would be making his return to the program and potentially play in this game. Every ounce of his production will be called upon against an Aggies defense who ranks top-5 in both Def Rush Success Rate and Def Rush EPA. Explosive plays may also come at a higher rate as the Aggies dip to 55th in Def Rush Explosiveness against the Cowboys who are top-20 in that regard.
The Aggies will also be prone to opposing pass production more than ever while they are forced to stack the box against Ollie Gordon. That plays right into the Cowboys favor as they have done a respectable job at putting themselves in favorable distances to gain by ranking 54th in Pass Success Rate. Better yet, Bowman may have an uptick in success with his deep ball as the Aggies rank 113th in Def Pass Explosiveness which helps the Cowboys stretch the defense as well.
Texas A&M Vs. Oklahoma State Prediction: Oklahoma State -1.5
Texas A&M Vs. Oklahoma State Best Odds
The line movement tells the tale of how much the Aggies have been ravaged by opt outs and transfers. They originally opened as a -4.5 favorite and have now been bet down to +2 as of writing. With Oklahoma State retaining a majority of their core on both sides of the ball, expect the Cowboys to find more consistent success throughout the contest.
As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a fast pace as oddsmakers opened the number at 53.5. After a plethora of changes, bettors believe points will come at a slightly slower pace as they have bet the under down to 52.5 in some shops. The line movement makes sense as the Aggies offense should struggle with consistency which helps a weak Cowboys defense.
Texas A&M Vs. Oklahoma State Key Matchups
Can the Cowboys front seven slow down the Aggies rush attack?
Cowboys Front Seven Vs. Texas A&M Ground Game
With Texas A&M having to play a third stringer at quarterback, they will most likely revert to a more conservative offense to help limit his turnover worthy plays. That means a heavier dose of the run is expected to be called, running against a OKST defense who ranks 38th in Def Rush Success Rate.
— Tanner Phifer (@TannerPhiferNFL) September 23, 2023
The ground game has been middling at best for the Aggies as they rank 47th in Rush Success Rate and are now expected to take a step back in production with their losses on the offensive line. That helps mask the Cowboys poor ranks in Def Rush EPA and Explosiveness as well, giving Oklahoma State a higher chance of getting the Aggies off the field early and often.