Texas Tech vs Duke: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/24/22)
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Texas Tech vs Duke Betting Odds
It looked like Coach K’s career was over. Tom Izzo would finally get the better of his nemesis and send Krzyzewski into retirement. The Spartans led by three with five minutes to go.
Duke’s young roster stepped up exactly when K needed them to.
— Tanner McGrath (@tannerstruth) March 20, 2022
However, the Blue Devils now run into the toughest team in the nation. Texas Tech is the best defensive team in the nation, ranking first in defensive efficiency and top-50 in every meaningful defensive statistic.
Duke has some offensive advantages, but the Blue Devils will likely have to hit shots to advance to the Elite Eight.
Meanwhile, the Red Raider offense will need to outscore their defense to advance – something that isn’t a guarantee.
Texas Tech is a one-point favorite while the total is sitting around 137.
Where does the value lie?
Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds
Texas Tech’s defense is immense. You don’t need stats to tell you this.
But can the offense take advantage of Duke’s defense?
TTU struggles with ball-handling, as it doesn’t have a lot of facilitators and ranks sub-285 nationally in offensive turnover rate. But the good news is that Duke doesn’t pressure the ball, so Mark Adams should be able to set up the offense.
Texas Tech will also attack the rim, ranking 29th in efficiency when finishing at the rim and 60th in frequency. But Duke is excellent at defending the rim, especially with Mark Williams anchoring the interior.
The key might be TTU getting out in transition. The Red Raiders don’t get out in transition a lot, but they’re third in transition when they do. Meanwhile, Duke is sub-200 in efficiency defending transition.
Duke has been poor at defending 3-point shots. But Texas Tech hasn’t shot well this year, and I don’t project much regression for them.
It’s tough to figure this one out.
Duke Blue Devils Odds
Can Duke’s offense exploit Texas Tech’s defense?
The only way is to make shots. That’s the only place where Texas Tech is weak defensively.
Texas Tech allows a ton of 3-point shots, as the Raiders allow the 14th highest 3-point rate nationally (45.7% 3PA/FGA allowed). Meanwhile, they’re 178th in efficiency defending catch-and-shoot opportunities and 136th off-the-dribble.
Duke opts for off-the-dribble more, as Paolo Banchero will often pull up off-the-dribble. But Duke is more efficient in catch-and-shoot opportunities, with guys like AJ Griffin, Jeremy Roach, and Wendell Moore Jr. being particularly valuable in spot-up situations.
Duke could get out in transition, as we know the Blue Devils like to run. But Texas Tech is athletic and excellent at getting back and stopping run-out opportunities. So, I don’t see an advantage there.
The good news is that Duke takes care of the ball. TTU thrives on creating turnovers, as the no-middle concept is predicated on that. But Duke is top-20 nationally in offensive turnover rate and third in non-steal turnover rate.
I like Duke’s defense in this matchup because the Blue Devils are good at the rim and defend ball-screens and motion offenses well.
But the only way Duke advances is by making shots.
Texas Tech vs Duke Prediction and Pick
That begs the question: Can Duke do it?
I have no idea. This matchup is too high-variance for me to understand. I’d like to think Duke won’t make the shots and Texas Tech rolls, but I’m not willing to bet on it.
However, given how both teams match up defensively, I am leaning strongly towards the under.
Neither team should turn the ball over much, and therefore will have plenty of time to set up the offense. Additionally, I don’t see either team getting out in transition much.
We could also see plenty of low-quality isolation opportunities, which will tend towards the under as well.
Duke has to make shots to win the game, but Duke is sub-200 in 3-point rate. Meanwhile, TTU is sub-260 in 3-point rate. So, don’t expect a lot of 3s in this game.
We’re in for a Rock Fight. Hopefully, one that is low-possession as well.
Either way, I’m willing to back the under. I’ve seen projections that make this line closer to 133.5, so I’m willing to play this down to 135.5
March Madness Bracket
