Texas Tech vs. TCU Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/5/22)

It’s 2014 all over again. In the first year of the College Football Playoff, TCU was one of the best teams in the nation and arguably should’ve been in the inaugural field. In 2022, the Horned Frogs are 8-0 under new coach Sonny Dykes and came in at No. 7 in the initial playoff ranking. If TCU wants to be a playoff team, Saturday’s matchup with Texas Tech is a must-win. Can the Red Raiders spoil TCU’s perfect season?

Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks and predictions for this Saturday matchup in Fort Worth?

Texas Tech vs. TCU Odds

TCU enters as a 9.5-point home favorite at -330 on the moneyline, with the over/under set all the way up at 69.5 points.

TCU has done nothing but win this season, but the Horned Frogs’ last four games have been pretty close. After beating Kansas by a touchdown and eeking out an overtime win over Oklahoma State, TCU notched 10-point wins over Kansas State and West Virginia. The Horned Frogs are aiming to win this game and stay undefeated, of course, but margin of victory may start to matter with the playoff race in mind. Can TCU cover -9.5?

Texas Tech vs. TCU Prediction & Pick

TCU may not finish undefeated, but I don’t see Texas Tech giving the Horned Frogs any kind of scare on that front this weekend. TCU’s offense has scored at least 38 points in each game this season, and Texas Tech’s uncertain quarterback situation doesn’t look like it has much of a chance to keep up with that unit.

Between a struggling run defense and a lack of success on the road this season, the Red Raiders don’t seem ready to keep this game close. TCU and its complete offense look like the safer bet to cover -9.5.

Texas Tech vs. TCU Key Matchups

Even in narrow wins, TCU’s offense has been difficult to stop. The Horned Frogs have scored 38+ points in all of their games this season, led by QB Max Duggan. Duggan doesn’t give opponents any help – he has only two interceptions this year and has an ability to extend plays with his mobility. As the season has progressed, RB Kendre Miller and WR Quentin Johnston have both emerged as dangerous weapons on this offense and bludgeoned defenses.

Texas Tech has an above-average pass defense, even looking respectable when the team gave up 40+ points to Oklahoma State and Baylor. Max Duggan might not be poised to have a big day in the same way that he did against West Virginia and Kansas. Fortunately for TCU, Miller’s emergence has added another element to the offense. The Red Raiders’ run defense is below-average, so expect Miller to make a big impact. Duggan may also be wise to start using his mobility again after moving away from it in recent weeks.

Texas Tech’s offense has had some highlights this season, including a great performance in an upset win over Texas, but the unit just didn’t look up to the task in a 45-17 loss to Baylor. The Red Raiders have sifted through three quarterbacks this season. Donovan Smith looked strong early on but hit some bumps and has been replaced by Behren Morton over the last three games. While it isn’t clear who will start this weekend, Morton hasn’t looked sharp to this point and seems to have a lower ceiling than a turnover-happy Smith.

TCU’s pass defense hasn’t been far from terrific, but does Texas Tech have enough in the tank to keep up with a Horned Frogs offense that routinely hovers around 40 points? Unlikely, especially on the road where Texas Tech is 0-3 with losses to NC State, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State by an average of more than 11 points.