Texas vs. Gonzaga: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (11/13/21)

Texas vs. Gonzaga Betting Odds

This is an incredible early-season college basketball matchup.

Gonzaga is, of course, the goliath. The consensus preseason #1 team, whom will outrun you on offense and overpower you on defense. Plus, they added the No. 1 overall prospect from this year’s incoming class.

Meanwhile, Texas is ready for a big resurgence. Chris Beard comes in from Texas Tech, ready to implement his no-middle defensive scheme while creating an offensive powerhouse filled with high-level transfers.

However, Gonzaga owns these early-season non-conference matchups. Last season, the Bulldogs took down Iowa, Kansas, and Virginia before Christmas, beating the three by an average of 15.3 points.

Well, Mark Few and Co. are laying 8.5-points in this game. Will they easily cover again? Or will the Horns prove a little too stingy for the Dogs?

Texas Longhorns Odds

After six seasons with zero NCAA Tournament victories under Shaka Smart, it was time for a coaching change in Austin.

Chris Beard has won everywhere he’s gone, and he’s brought in a roster that’s revitalized and ready to shock the college basketball world.

It starts with Marcus Carr, the Minnesota transfer and electric offensive threat. Last season, Carr led the Big Ten in minutes played and ranked third in scoring, making the first-team all-conference as a result.

🍁🇨🇦 Marcus Carr explodes for a career-high 41 points in Minnesota's 78-74 loss to Nebraska

11/27 FG | 6/15 3PT | 13/16 FT | 4 REB | 4 STL | 3 AST | 2 PF | 2 TO | 40 MIN#NCAAB #CollegeBasketball pic.twitter.com/m6pCt9Frv2

— BasketballBuzz.ca 🇨🇦🏀🍁 (@basketballbuzz) February 28, 2021

Outside of that, Beard brings in five high-level transfers: Dylan Disu (Vanderbilt), Tre Mitchell (UMass), Christian Bishop (Creighton), Timmy Allen (Creighton), and Devin Askew (Kentucky).

But it’s important to come back to Andrew Jones. Jones was the team’s leading scorer last season and heated up down the stretch, dropping 25 on Baylor in February and then scoring in double-digits in his final five games.

This is Jones’ sixth year as a Longhorn, and he’ll be the team’s leader. Luckily, some of the scoring load should be taken off his back with the transfers.

I’m very interested to see how the no-middle scheme plays in Austin. It’s a scheme that’s as unique as it is successful, predicated on driving ball-handlers to the sideline and baseline rather than towards the paint.

As a result, opponents must rely more on perimeter shots and skip passes. Last season, Texas Tech’s opponents took just 26.5% of their shots at the rim, good for seventh-lowest in the country.

On the weak side, the defenders zone up and attempt to force turnovers on long skip passes. Also, as a result, Texas Tech had the eighth highest turnover rate on defense last season (23.7%).

Beard transformed Texas Tech with this defense. Given Texas’ athleticism and decent length, I think Beard will implement this with immediate success.

Also worth noting: Scott Drew used the no-middle at Baylor, and the Bears’ defense dominated Gonzaga in the National Championship game last season. There’s a lot of context missing there, but it’s interesting to note.

Gonzaga Bulldogs Odds

Not much to say about Gonzaga.

They have the most talented frontcourt in the nation between Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. Timme is the favorite to win National Player of the Year while Holmgren is the favorite to win Newcomer of the Year.

Holmgren was the consensus top prospect for this season, and Gonzaga got a lot better by adding him. He was the Gatorade National Player of the year last season, and his 7-foot-0 frame and three-level scoring ability may remind you of Kevin Durant.

However, Holmgren’s contributions are more complex than that. It’s true he shows an inside-outside presence rarely seen from a seven-footer, but he plays primarily at the five and is a shot-blocking force.

CHET HOLMGREN's impressive college debut

14 Points
13 Rebounds
7 Blocks
6 Assists
67% Shooting
In 28 Minutespic.twitter.com/1uVsksLfft

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) November 10, 2021

Returning Andrew Nembhard was big for Few. With Corey Kispert, Jalen Suggs, and Joel Ayayi out, Nembhard steps in as the primary ball-handler for the team. He’ll run the show on offense, but he’s a very competent floor general.

Particularly in the pick-and-roll. In terms of points per possession, Nembhard ranked in the 86th percentile as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, with .949. Meanwhile, Timme ranked in the 90th percentile as a pick-and-roll roll man, with 1.276.

Nembhard's vision is unbelievable on this pick and roll with Timme pic.twitter.com/VjBNMiwfKn

— Justin Reed (@JustinReed99) December 3, 2020

I can only imagine what Nembhard will do with Holmgren.

Gonzaga will play stupidly fast – the Bulldogs played at the seventh-highest adjusted tempo last season – and get out into transition a lot. Last season, Gonzaga recorded the third-highest percentage of transition shots (34%) and posted the highest effective field goal percentage on them (65.8%).

But they also dominated in the half-court, posting the nation’s highest points per possession in half-court sets (1.052).

Gonzaga isn’t the best defensive team in the country, but they do a little bit of everything and finished 11th in defensive efficiency last season. It almost doesn’t matter, however, as Gonzaga can outscore anybody.

The only issue with this team: There might be too many good players. Few must work out a rotation that maximizes talent and chemistry. But that’ll probably be easy for the 20-year veteran coach.

Prediction and Pick

My pick: Texas +7.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

I love this Gonzaga team, but this is too many points this early in the season.

Gonzaga loves to roll teams in the early season, but I’m very confident in Beard’s coaching ability. He’ll throw everything he has at the Bulldogs, including the no-middle defense, and should be able to keep the Longhorns within the number.

Plus, sharp money has already come in on the Longhorns, pushing this number down from the open of +8.5. The smart money is on Texas, and I’m willing to follow it in this spot.