Texas Vs. Kansas Odds, Picks, Predictions (11/19/22)

In what was one of the more shocking results of last week, Texas was subdued by TCU as a seven-point favorite. Even more shocking yet, Texas still has a chance to make the Big 12 championship should they win out and get help from others. Standing in their path for the time being? The upstart Kansas Jayhawks.

Texas Vs. Kansas Odds

Texas comes into this one as a two-score favorite, currently sitting at -9 after opening at -9.5. They will have advantages all over on the offensive end as Kansas fields one of the worst defenses in the league. Should they limit Kansas’s potent offense, then Texas will have no problem steam rolling the Jayhawks.

As for the total, this number has stayed pretty firm on the opening number of 64.5. While Texas is expected to play their part in scoring, the Kansas Jayhawks offense will go a long way to deciding which side wins as Texas fields an above average defense.

Texas Vs. Kansas Prediction & Pick

The Pick: Under 64.5

It’s never fun taking an under in a game that involves Kansas’s offense this season, but that is exactly what I’m doing. Especially with Texas’s offense looking as anemic as possible, only scoring 10 points against the lowly TCU defense. An eye-popping result.

After losing stud quarterback Jalon Daniels in their game against TCU, Kansas has had to rely on the arm of Jason Bean who has been a more than capable replacement. That is until he went down with an injury last week. While he practiced Monday, he was severely limited and still questionable to return.

Should both Daniels and Bean both sit this one out, that means Kansas will be on their third stringer and that is never ideal while going against Texas’s defense. Backup Ethan Vasko has barely seen the field this year, only going in for a few snaps in their last game out against Texas Tech.

As for Texas, this offense looked broken last week against a defense arguably worse than Kansas. Texas was held to 199 total yards, 28 on the ground, to the tune of 10 points and 23 minutes of possession. Yikes.

Texas Vs. Kansas Key Matchups

Can Quinn Ewers and Bijan Robinson get the Longhorns offense back on track? Can Devin Neal find success on the ground against Texas?

Longhorns’ weapons vs Jayhawks defense

I still am in shock with what I witnessed last week, and this is coming from someone who has 2u on the Horned Frogs to win the Big 12 at +1800. I can’t make it more clear that the Horned Frogs have serious defensive issues, issues that have been exploited the past few weeks in high scoring affairs and yet the Longhorns couldn’t do anything about it.

Ewers and Robinson especially, two stars in the making who were both practically non-existent. Ewers finished last week’s showing with a disappointing 171 yards and one interception while Robinson was limited to only 29 yards on the ground with no scores to show for. 

While I expect a bounce back, success may not be as easy to find as it would appear. At least in terms of explosiveness as Kansas’s back end has done a phenomenal job at limiting success in front of them. This helps our case for the under as we can temper expectations of the Longhorns ability to break out a busted play for a fluke score.

Devin Neal vs Longhorn’s rush defense

With quarterback uncertainty surrounding the Jayhawks, we may see a heavier dose of their consistent running back Devin Neal. A name that has kind of been swept under the rug in lieu of the Jayhawks offensive explosion, Neal has secretly been a force in the back field by rushing for 951 yards and seven touchdowns.

Neal will play a major factor in the success of the Jayhawks offense should they start third stringer Vasko as I would assume the playbook would be limited and the Jayhawks would go conservative. Neal will have his hands full as the Longhorns rush defense ranks 11th in Def Success Rate.

Verdict

With Kansas potentially limited behind center and the Longhorns offense reeling the past few weeks, take the under at no lower than 63 in what may be another sloppy affair.