Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Miami Heat: Predictions, Starting Lineups (1/10/24)

The Oklahoma City Thunder hope to close the gap on the first-place Timberwolves on Wednesday night when they play the Miami Heat on the road. Can the Thunder sneak out a win in South Beach against a shorthanded Heat squad? See our Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat prediction and betting picks below for a full breakdown!

Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Miami Heat Prediction

Well, this will be an interesting starting lineup for the Miami Heat. Without Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry, and Jimmy Butler, the Heat might be forced to start Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Nikola Jovic, and Bam Adebayo. And for some reason, that concerns me as a potential OKC backer, even though that lineup seems scattered and unconventional, to say the least.

For one, Oklahoma City has sputtered a bit on the road recently, dropping games to Brooklyn and Atlanta before finally snapping out of it and beating the Wizards. However, the Thunder only won by eight points against a horrendous Washington team, letting six players score double-digit points in the process. It was ugly.

The Thunder have been a fringe top-ten team in opponent 3P% this season, but in their past three road games, they have allowed opponents to shoot over 42% from three. That does not bode well against a team that shoots just shy of 41% from deep in front of their home crowd.

Here are the players who will be getting substantial tick tonight for Miami: Nikola Jovic (44% from three), Tyler Herro (42%), and Duncan Robinson (42.2%.) OKC’s ability to consistently cover all three players, especially with Bam Adebayo roaming around the free-throw-line extended area, running DHOs with these sharpshooters. Ultimately, Miami’s offense should be fine against this Thunder team, which has a defensive rating of 129.9 in their past three road games.

The matchup for Chet Holmgren against Bam Adebayo also presents some concerns. Holmgren has been fantastic this season as a rookie due to his skill, IQ, size, and length; however, Adebayo doesn’t bite on pump fakes, can play extremely physical interior defense without fouling, and has the lateral quickness and hip mobility to cut him off on drives. This matchup could halt OKC’s offensive impact.

Miami is in a three-way tie for fifth place in the Eastern Conference and is only half of a game from eighth place; it will want to create a gap as quickly as possible between it and the rest of those teams (Orlando, Cleveland, and Indiana.) This feels and looks like a trap game, especially with Miami having several key players out.

Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Miami Heat Prediction: Heat +4.5 (-110)

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Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Miami Heat Best Odds



The Oklahoma City Thunder are 4.5-point road favorites in South Beach on Wednesday night when they face the Miami Heat. Miami has Moneyline odds of +154 to rain on the Thunder’s parade, while OKC is -185 to win outright against the Heat. The point total for this bout is 233 points, which is quite a surprise considering the Heat are 27th in pace in the NBA.

Oklahoma City Thunder Starting Lineup

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG: Josh Giddey
SF: Lu Dort
PF: Jalen Williams
C: Chet Holmgren

Miami Heat Starting Lineup

PG: Tyler Herro
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
PF: Nikola Jovic
C: Bam Adebayo

Oklahoma City Thunder Vs. Miami Heat Injuries

Miami will be without several key players for Wednesday night’s game against the surging Oklahoma City Thunder, including Jimmy Butler (toe), Caleb Martin (ankle), Dru Smith (knee), and Kyle Lowry (hand.) The Heat will be forced to start Jaime Jaquez Jr., Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, and Nikola Jovic. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City will only miss two players who have no implications on the team’s rotations: Davis Bertans and Olivier Sarr.

Drew is one of the NBA Lead Writers at Lineups.com, specializing in betting content such as game predictions and player props. With a deep knowledge of players and prospects, Drew has an extensive edge in covering everything NBA.

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