Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings NBA Player Props & Picks Tonight (12/14/23)

The Oklahoma City Thunder battle the Sacramento Kings this Thursday (12/14/23). Get Thunder vs. Kings player prop best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings Player Prop Picks

Which players will dominate in the Thunder vs. Kings game?

Keegan Murray Over 2.5 3PM (-125 FD)

Across four career matchups against Oklahoma City, Keegan Murray has averaged 21.5 points and hit at least three shots from deep in every game. Murray broke the rookie record last year at 206 made threes, and he’s set to once again dominate. 

Oklahoma City’s defense is giving up the third most three-point attempts, the most corner attempts, the third largest catch-and-shoot three-point frequency, and the seventh most open plus wide open three-point attempts per 100 possessions (via NBA.com). They routinely over-help on drivers and collapse inside often when it isn’t necessary, so opponents constantly find success via drive-and-kicks. 

De’Aaron Fox averages the third most drives per game in the league, and his speed will allow him to knife his way past Oklahoma City’s strong point-of-attack defense. Fox should thrive as a passer here, especially with Chet Holmgren acting as an eager weak-side rim protector. Murray also has the fourth most handoff possessions per game across the NBA, so his connection with Domantas Sabonis should grant him quality looks from deep. 

For the bet to be profitable in the long run, Murray needs to hit the over roughly 55 percent of the time. 

SGP (-117 FD): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points & Domantas Sabonis 10+ Rebounds & Kevin Huerter 1+ 3PM 

Opponents average the seventh most field goal attempts within 16 feet of the basket against the Kings, and they are also producing the eighth largest field goal percentage here. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo averages more attempts per game in this area than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has cleared 30 points in 15 of 21 games. Plus, “SGA” has notched at least 30 points in four straight matchups against the Kings. 

Sacramento also ranks 19th in opponent free throw attempt rate, and Gilgeous-Alexander led the NBA in made free throws last season. He’s currently shooting a 91.7 FT%, so the Kings will be in trouble if they continue to foul. 

Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has a massive rebounding problem. They rank dead last in opponent offensive rebound rate, so centers subsequently produce the second most rebounds per game against them. Sabonis sees the second most rebound chances in the NBA at 20.1 per game, and he has recorded 10 rebounds in 17 of 22 games this year. As for career success, Sabonis has hit 10 rebounds in 10 straight games against Oklahoma City dating back to 2019. 

Finally, Oklahoma City’s three-point defense is abysmal as stated above in the Keegan Murray pick. Kevin Huerter has hit a three in 18 of 21 games this season, including in 10 of 11 career games against the Thunder. 

Based on the odds, this same game parlay needs to hit about 54 percent of the time.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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