Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Player Prop Search Tool
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Player Prop Picks
Which players will thrive in this Thunder vs. Mavericks contest?
Derrick Jones Jr. Over 0.5 3PM (-200 DK)
Oklahoma City aggressively helps inside when the pick-and-roll bypasses the first line of defense and penetrates the paint. This strategy pesters rim attempts, and they allow the second lowest field goal percentage within eight feet of the basket as a result (via NBA.com). However, it leaves them vulnerable to kick-outs and swings; opponents subsequently conjure the ninth most wide open three-point attempts and most corner three-point attempts per game against the Thunder.
Enter Derrick Jones Jr, who averages the sixth most corner attempts per game across the NBA. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are premier drivers that should consistently set him up here. Jones Jr is only a 34 percent shooter from deep, but his projected volume overrides this concern.
He has played 13 games this season against teams currently in the top 10 for most allowed corner attempts per game. Across those contests, he averaged just over five three-point attempts per game and saw at least three attempts in 12 of 13 games. Jones Jr notched a made three in 10 of 13 games, or 76 percent of the time. This sample includes a 6/12 performance against Oklahoma City in early December.
Based on his -200 odds, he needs to hit the over at least 66 percent of the time for the bet to hold a positive expected value, thus making it profitable in the long run. That’s assuredly the case to me given the above information, so pulling the trigger is advisable. Yes, it’s heavily juiced, but a one unit bet still returns half of a unit. Not every at-bat ends up in the stands – a team cannot go wrong with a single.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 1.5 Steals (-105 DK)
Gilgeous-Alexander’s near seven-foot wingspan and superb defensive instincts are a perfect combination for disrupting passing lanes. He can play off-ball and roam like a free safety because Lu Dort takes the top assignment every night. That will be Luka Doncic, who called Dort “one of the top three defenders in the NBA” and stated that “it’s really tough to play against him” during a postgame interview on October 29th, 2022. The numbers agree, as Doncic owns a career 42.5 field goal percentage against Dort and turned the ball over seven times in their only matchup this season.
Doncic averages the second most turnovers per game, and Dort’s on-ball pressure likely forces more mistakes than usual. Gilgeous-Alexander, who is easily the current NBA steals leader at 2.2 per game, can capitalize on these errors. It’s worth noting that he has recorded at least two steals in five of six games against Doncic since joining the Thunder.
Given the -105 odds, Gilgeous-Alexander must hit the over at least 51 percent of the time for it to be profitable in the long run.