Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs: Predictions, Starting Lineups (1/24/24)

The Oklahoma City Thunder (30-13) battle the San Antonio Spurs (8-35) this Wednesday (1/24/24). Get Thunder vs. Spurs moneyline and spread odds, as well as predictions, starting lineups, injuries, and key matchups below.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction

While Victor Wembanyama is a generational defender, the Spurs are still atrocious and rank 25th in Defensive Rating. Oklahoma City’s offense leads the league in points per possession and should absolutely decimate them.

The Spurs give up the 5th most field goal attempts and 11th largest field goal percentage within eight feet of the basket (via NBA.com). That’s a massive red flag against a Thunder squad that averages the most drives per game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams can effortlessly bypass San Antonio’s non-existent point-of-attack defense and get to the rim at will. If Wembanyama tries to help inside, then Chet Holmgren (38.2 3PT%) can counter with endless pick-and-pops.

Meanwhile, the Spurs surrender the fourth most wide open three-point attempts per game. Oklahoma City ranks second across the NBA in 3PT% and features outside shooting at all five positions, including the bench unit too. As a result, the Thunder will place a tremendous amount of pressure at the rim and behind the arc, which is simply too much for a defense to handle.

On the other end, few players are better situated to contain Wembanyama than Chet Holmgren. His length, mobility, and rim protection will be huge assets against Wembanyama’s freakish game. Oklahoma City’s stable of excellent guard and wing defenders can also wreak havoc here.

Finally, San Antonio’s lack of ball handlers and playmakers may be even worse tonight with Tre Jones questionable. He missed this morning’s shootaround per San Antonio Express-News’ Jeff McDonald, so Jones is more doubtful than probable. If he misses the contest, then the Spurs’ offense becomes even bleaker.

Overall, this should be a blowout despite the Thunder being on the second night of a back-to-back. San Antonio’s flaws are too glaring, and Oklahoma City has too many options on both sides of the ball.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction: Thunder -8 & Thunder -15.5 & 1st Half Thunder -4

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Best Odds

The Thunder are only eight point favorites in this matchup. That’s surprising considering Oklahoma City is a vastly superior team and defeated San Antonio by 36 points in their previous matchup this season.

San Antonio needs to win this matchup at least 26 percent of the time for their +280 moneyline to hold a positive expected value, thus making it profitable in the long run.

Oklahoma City Thunder Starting Lineup

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG: Luguentz Dort
SF: Josh Giddey
PF: Jalen Williams
C: Chet Holmgren

San Antonio Spurs Starting Lineup

PG: Tre Jones
SG: Devin Vassell
SF: Julian Champagnie
PF: Jeremy Sochan
C: Victor Wembanyama

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Injuries

Oklahoma CIty will have their full rotation at their disposal besides third center Olivier Sarr, who is questionable. San Antonio, on the other hand, may be missing starting point guard Tre Jones, who is trending towards doubtful. End of the bench players Charles Bassey and Sidy Cissoko will also miss the contest.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Key Matchups

Spurs 3PT Shooting

Oklahoma City’s biggest weakness is their three-point defense. They allow the most corner attempts per game and the 11th most wide open three-point attempt per game. Can the Spurs take advantage? They are 28th in 3PT% for the season and 22nd over their past 15 games. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Victor Wembanyama need to have a great night from deep for San Antonio to cover.

Turnovers

The Spurs’ offense has the 11th largest turnover rate, which will especially be an issue if Tre Jones misses the game. Oklahoma City ranks first in opponent turnover rate, second in deflections per game, and second in contested shots per game. If the Thunder use turnovers to keep the possession battle at least even, then it’s highly unlikely that San Antonio keeps pace with this hyper-efficient offense.

Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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