Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers NFL First Touchdown: Expert Picks & Predictions (11/2/23)

The Tennessee Titans face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Thursday Night Football (11/2/23). Get Titans vs. Steelers First Touchdown best bets, as well as a player prop search tool to optimize odds shopping for Thursday night’s game.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers First Touchdown Picks

The goal of the First Touchdown prop is to identify which player will score the first touchdown of the game. Who will score first in the Titans vs. Steelers game?

George Pickens First TD (+800 FD) & First Steelers TD (+430 FD)

The Tennessee Titans boast one of the best run defenses in the NFL. Opponents have only managed 3.8 yards per rush and four rushing touchdowns against them. On the other hand, their secondary ranks 24th in net yards gained per pass attempt and 26th in opponent dropback expected points added per play. 

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per rush and has scored three rushing touchdowns all year. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have been completely ineffective behind an offensive line that cannot create running lanes. If the Steelers are going to score here, it’s far more likely that it comes through the air despite their passing woes. 

George Pickens paces Pittsburgh in target share, receptions, yards, receiving touchdowns, and red zone targets. The sophomore receiver has scored Pittsburgh’s first touchdown in two of their last three games too. Finally, he’s a prolific contested catch receiver that can fight through contact in the end zone. Based on the matchup and his usage, Pickens is the main first touchdown pick here. 

He needs to score the first touchdown about 11 percent of the time and Pittsburgh’s first touchdown about 18 percent of the time for the bets to have a positive expected value. 

Diontae Johnson First TD (+900 FD) & First Steelers TD (+470 FD)

The veteran receiver ranked 13th across the NFL in red zone targets last year and 10th during the 2021 season. He famously earned 147 targets and secured no touchdowns last season, but it’s incredibly unlikely that Johnson continues to heavily struggle notching touchdowns considering his usage. 

As stated above, targeting Pittsburgh’s pass-catchers instead of their backs is the wiser decision. Outside of Pickens and Johnson, Kenny Pickett possesses extremely limited options. Reliable tight end Pat Freiermuth remains out, while 30-year-old former Pro Bowler Allen Robinson is a shell of his former self. 

Johnson must score first about 10 percent of the time and Pittsburgh’s first touchdown about 17 percent of the time. 

Pittsburgh Steelers Defense First TD (+3400 FD)

The Steelers have a knack for creating chaos. They rank 2nd in percentage of opponent drives ending in an offensive turnover, 2nd in defensive touchdowns per game, and 7th in sacks per game. 

Rookie quarterback Will Levis shined in his first start by tossing four touchdowns – three of which went to DeAndre Hopkins. However, Hopkins is in danger of missing this contest, and Levis’ weapons are considerably underwhelming even with him playing. Rookie quarterbacks tend to make mistakes, especially in their first few starts. Therefore, it’s reasonable that Pittsburgh’s defense can confuse Levis and punish him via a defensive score.

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Braxton has been covering the NBA for Lineups since the 2021-22 season. He's worked with multiple collegiate coaching staffs about analytics and scouting, which has allowed him to understand the game on a deeper level. Braxton is also a contributor at Thunderous Intentions and NBA Analysis Network.

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