Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Player Props & Picks (11/12/23)
Get Titans vs. Buccaneers player prop picks & odds for the (11/12/23) matchup.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Picks
The Will Levis show continues as the Titans face the Buccaneers in a battle of teams hoping to avoid falling three games under .500. Can Tampa’s defense bounce back after getting torched in Week 9? Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop bets from Sunday’s clash.
Will Levis Over 1.5 Touchdown Passes (+170, DraftKings)
The Titans have operated with a run-based offense for a long time, but they showed a willingness to let Will Levis sling it in his debut. They played it more conservatively against the Steelers, but why wouldn’t they? Levis was under heavy pressure all night in a tough environment. The Buccaneers present anything but a tough pass defense.
Tampa just got shredded by C.J. Stroud for 470 yards and 5 TD passes, letting three different receivers go for 100+ yards. The Bucs do have a solid run defense, so there isn’t any reason to hold Levis back after his four-TD performance against the Falcons two weeks ago. The rookie’s connection with DeAndre Hopkins alone makes +162 odds on two touchdown passes worth a bet.
Chigoziem Okonkwo Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
The entire Titans offense is going to benefit if Will Levis keeps playing the way he has, but Chigoziem Okonkwo could especially see better days ahead. He saw his catch rate jump from under 60 percent in Ryan Tannehill’s last two starts to 75 percent or higher in Levis’ first two starts, grabbing three receptions for 28 yards against the Steelers.
Okonkwo has already gone over 30 yards twice this season, and with a more pass-heavy attack likely against the Buccaneers’ poor pass defense – plus the ability of Levis to actually get him the ball – the promising tight end should be seriously involved in the offense this weekend.
After Okonkwo averaged 14 yards per reception, we know the potential is there despite him only having one reception of 14 yards or more this season.
Baker Mayfield Over 22.5 Completions (+100, BetMGM)
The Titans are allowing a concerning 69 percent completion rate this season, a figure that jumps to 72 percent when wide receivers are targeted. With Baker Mayfield finding a rhythm last week against Houston, there’s no reason for the Buccaneers to rely too heavily on what hasn’t been a very efficient running game.
Mayfield has completed 20 or more passes in six of his eight starts this season, averaging 24.3 completions over his last three games. Those numbers are a bit elevated in his recent starts because the Buccaneers keep falling behind, but it’s entirely possible Tampa finds itself in the same position against Tennessee with the way its pass defense has been struggling.
After Mayfield went throw-for-throw with C.J. Stroud at times last week, we could see a similar scenario play out against what’s been a softer-than-expected Titans pass defense at times.
DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Touchdown (+185, FanDuel)
This falls under the category of “don’t overthink it.” DeAndre Hopkins is the Titans’ best receiving weapon by a large margin, and Levis has flashed a stronger connection with him than Tannehill did at any point.
Hopkins torched the Falcons for three touchdowns in Levis’ debut, and he was a frequent target again vs. the Steelers. Levis targeted Hopkins 11 times in Pittsburgh, looking his way on more than 28 percent of his attempts. Hopkins only made four catches, but that rate is sure to rise against a weak Buccaneers pass defense. Better yet, Hopkins made the most of those four catches with 60 yards. When he and Levis have connected, the results have generally been big plays rather than short-yardage work.
It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Hopkins make another trip to the end zone after being kept off the board last week.
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