On Sunday (11/19/23), the Tennessee Titans face the Jacksonville Jaguars in an intriguing AFC South matchup. In this article, find a breakdown of some of the top player props on the board for this game featuring Derrick Henry, Tyjae Spears, Christian Kirk, and Travis Etienne.
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Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Picks
The Jaguars beat the Titans to clinch the AFC South late last season, and Tennessee will be hungry for revenge here. However, the sportsbooks don’t expect them to get it with a spread of -6.5 favoring the home Jaguars. In this article, I’ll break down some of the player props I’m eyeing for this game. Be sure to use the player prop search tool above to make sure you’re getting the best odds for whichever prop you select. Let’s get to work.
Derrick Henry Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
It doesn’t bring me great joy to fade Derrick Henry in this game as he’s one of my favorite players of all time, but it’s tough to imagine him having much success here. Henry had just 11 carries for 24 yards as the tough matchup and bad game script hampered his production, and I’m expecting more of the same here.
Jacksonville’s run defense has been outstanding this season as they rank top five in defensive line yards and run stop win rate. The Titans rank just 19th in PFF’s run-blocking metrics and are set to be without left tackle Andre Dillard, so they’re at a major disadvantage up front. Henry is still an excellent runner, but this environment will hurt his ability to produce.
Tyjae Spears Over 2.5 Receptions (-150 BetMGM)
I expect the Titans to be trailing in this game, which will likely mean more Tyjae Spears snaps as he’s a much more dynamic receiver than Henry at this point in their careers. Spears has been a reliable outlet for rookie quarterback Will Levis with three straight games of 3+ receptions. Spears is over this number in six of his last seven games.
The Jaguars won’t shy away from bringing the heat on Levis in this game as they rank 10th in blitz rate. Their blitzing tendencies have led to running back utilization in the passing game all season as the Jaguars have allowed 7.5 receptions to running backs, the most in the NFL. Look for Spears’s involvement to continue here.
Christian Kirk Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-120 BetMGM)
While Calvin Ridley’s return to the field was expected to be the big story for the Jaguars this season, Christian Kirk has quietly been the WR1 with a 21.8% target share. When he faces two-high defenses, his route running prowess has been even more valuable as that target share jumps to 27.1%.
The Titans rank tenth in two high utilization over the past month, so it’s likely that we’ll see Kirk even more involved here. Tennessee is playing UDFA rookie Eric Garror in the slot with Roger McCreary hurt, and Kirk certainly has the upper hand in that matchup. In his last game against the Titans, Kirk had six catches for 99 yards and a score, so the upside here is huge.
Travis Etienne Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (-120 BetMGM)
It was a quiet game for Travis Etienne last week as he never found traction in the Jaguars’ 34-3 blowout loss to the 49ers. He finished with just 11 carries for 44 yards and was under a 72% snap share for the first time all season. However, Etienne’s high usage isn’t going anywhere and he still ranks second in the NFL in rushing attempts.
The game script here should be conducive to a heavy workload for Etienne on the ground as the Jaguars are 6.5-point favorites. Etienne has 18+ carries in five of his team’s six wins this year and he’s averaging 20 rushing attempts in those games. This line is priced lower than it should be.