On Sunday (11/19/23), the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Tennessee Titans in a crucial AFC South matchup. In this article, find the latest betting odds for the game as well as a full matchup preview. In addition, find our best bet for Titans Vs. Jaguars, which is the Jaguars -6.5.
Tennessee Titans Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction
I expected the Jaguars to give the 49ers a real test at home last week, but they looked completely flat after the bye week in a 34-3 loss where they never got off the mat. Trevor Lawrence completed just 58% of his passes and threw two interceptions, both of which came when he was under pressure, per PFF.
The Titans won’t accomplish the same pressure rate on Lawrence as the 49ers did with their elite pass rush, and their secondary could be in trouble against Jacksonville’s stacked skill position group. Tennessee ranks bottom six against the pass by DVOA and EPA with PFF’s 26th-ranked secondary by coverage grades.
Tennessee is rolling out Will Levis under center, and while he started strong with four touchdowns in his debut, he has the second-lowest highly accurate throw rate over the last two weeks. His offensive line falling apart hasn’t helped, as he was pressured on a whopping 44% of his dropbacks last week. The Titans won’t be able to support him with their run game, either, as the Jaguars rank third in run defense DVOA.
Mike Vrabel is one of my most respected coaches in the NFL, and it bears out in his 25-14-1 ATS (64%) record as a dog of 3+ points. However, the Jaguars are in a historically profitable spot here – teams that lost by 20+ points are 85-58-1 ATS (59.4%) against teams that didn’t the week prior since 2020.
I’m expecting the Jaguars to bounce back with a home win, but I have enough respect for Vrabel that I’d pass on making a bet on the spread here. However, I’d much sooner side with Jacksonville, and they’re a decent option for survivor pool entries, depending on which teams you have already used. Feel free to use the Jaguars in a Moneyline parlay with another favorite, as well.
Tennessee Titans Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction: Jaguars -6.5
Tennessee Titans Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Best Odds
The spread for this game has climbed as it opened at -5 on the look ahead before climbing all the way to -6.5 or -7. Keep in mind that 7 is a very key number in NFL spreads. The over/under sits at 40 points, so the books aren’t expecting a high-scoring matchup, and that would lead to an implied score of around 24-17 in favor of the Jaguars.
Tennessee Titans Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Key Injuries
We’re into the time of year when injuries really start to pile up in the NFL, so bear that in mind when placing a wager on this game. The Jaguars will be without top cornerback Tyson Campbell here, while the Titans will be without starting left tackle Andre Dillard. Tennessee will also be missing wide receiver Treylon Burks and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting.
Tennessee Titans Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Key Matchups
When these AFC South rivals face off, there will be a lot at stake in a heated AFC playoff picture. Let’s dive into some of the key matchups that will determine who comes away victorious in this divisional affair.
Trevor Lawrence Vs. Titans Secondary
If you were hoping for an MVP-level season from the former first overall pick, you’ve been disappointed with Trevor Lawrence’s 9:6 TD:INT ratio. Lawrence ranks just 19th among qualified QBs in passer rating and 17th in EPA+CPOE composite. While the Jaguars are still in the driver’s seat in their division, they need more from Lawrence to enter Super Bowl conversations.
This is a game where Lawrence should find success as Tennessee has been a pass funnel defense all year. The Titans rank 28th in pass defense EPA with a secondary that has been picked off with injuries and the trade of star safety Kevin Byard. Lawrence has the opportunity for a statement game – will he take it?
Trevor Lawrence (Rank among QBs)
On Target %: 79.1% (4th)
Big Time Throws: 16 (6th)
Deep Passing (20+): 98.3 Grade (1st)
Time to Throw: 2.48 Secs (4th)
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) November 9, 2023
Derrick Henry Vs. Jaguars Run Defense
With Will Levis’s efficiency tapering off each week, the Titans need a balanced offensive approach to move the ball against a Jacksonville defense ranked fifth in overall DVOA. However, Derrick Henry was held to just 11 carries for 24 yards last week. Henry has forced 30 missed tackles, the fifth-most in the NFL, so he’s still a dominant runner, but the circumstances have hurt his production.
Jacksonville has built an elite run defense, ranking fourth in defensive line yards and third in run defense DVOA. Linebacker Foyesade Oluokun ranks second in the NFL with 42 run stops per PFF while second-year linebacker Devin Lloyd forms a stout inside tandem that rarely allows big plays to be broken on the ground.
Derrick Henry’s PR team is insane, how did this video get wiped from existence 😭 pic.twitter.com/EU2yIspIdb
— ☃️ (@ETNSZN) November 16, 2023