Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox (6/21/22) Starting Lineup, Betting Odds, Prediction
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This is the pitching matchup of the week. Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease will duel it out as the Blue Jays visit the Southside of Chicago. The Jays are playing well behind Gausman, but we can’t say the same for Cease’s Sox.
Which team has the edge in this one?
Let’s dive into the starting lineups, betting odds, and my prediction for this Tuesday matchup.
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Odds
This line seems fair, although you wonder just how much better Gausman is than Cease.
If Gausman is being valued correctly by the market, then the Jays should be close to -130 favorites here. But Cease’s numbers are comparable to – if not better than – Gausman’s. It might be worth taking a look at the White Sox as underdogs here.
Of course, another part of this is that the White Sox are 31-33 and just 13-17 at Guaranteed Rate Field this season.
The total is fair at 8.5. It could be low considering Toronto’s offense and the projected wind blowing out to the left-center field at close to 13mph.
Toronto Blue Jays Starting Lineup
CF G. Springer R
SS B. Bichette R
1B V. Guerrero R
RF T. Hernandez R
DH A. Kirk R
LF L. Gurriel R
3B M. Chapman R
C D. Jansen R
2B S. Espinal R
Toronto Blue Jays vs Dylan Cease
Only three pitchers have more strikeouts than Cease this year. Nobody has a higher K/9 than Cease’s 12.84. He’s struck out at least eight batters in nine of his 13 starts this season, including recording double-digit strikeout starts twice.
It starts with his heater, a four-seam fastball that sits around 97mph and sees more rising action than most. He can elevate it past any hitter in the game while simultaneously using a slider and knuckle-curve combo to keep hitters off balance and record chasing strikeouts.
Dylan Cease, 99mph Fastball (foul) and 83mph Knuckle Curve (sword K), Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/QnbDVwemCs
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 15, 2022
Cease is a pure power pitcher, and it can get into trouble with walks as a result. His 34 walks is tops in the American League, and his 11.5% walk rate is higher than 84% of qualified pitchers.
Toronto pretty much walks at a league-average rate. The Blue Jays generate runs more with power than average or OBP, as their .421 SLG against RHPs is fourth in MLB, their 90.4mph avg. exit velocity ranks second, and their 44.4% hard-hit rate ranks first.
It’ll be interesting to see how this power vs. power matchup ends up. Cease hasn’t performed well against this Toronto lineup in the past, but the sample size is small. Then again, Vladdy Guerrero Jr. has a 1.061 OPS this month.
Chicago White Sox Starting Lineup
SS Tim Anderson R
CF L. Robert R
LF A. Vaughn R
1B J. Abreu R
3B J. Burger R
C Y. Grandal S
RF AJ Pollock R
DH G. Sheets L
2B J. Harrison R
Chicago White Sox vs Kevin Gausman
Gausman still wears MLB’s fWAR crown for pitchers so far this season, sitting at 3.1. However, Sandy Alcantara is quickly making up ground.
It’s hard to find a guy with better control than Gausman. A 26.1% strikeout rate combined with a 3.6% walk rate equals a 1.75 FIP, one of the best in the league among starting pitchers. He also has allowed just .25 homers per nine innings this season.
Gausman also gets hitters to chase more than any other pitcher in baseball. Once he sets up guys with his four-seam fastball, he drops in a deadly splitter or slider, two pitches that average a 45% whiff rate between them.
However, things haven’t been 100% with Gausman lately.
Kevin Gausman has really struggled lately.
First 6 Starts:
45 IP, 2.23 xFIP
30.9 K%, 1.1 BB%
29.7 K-BB%, 18.3 SwStr%Last 5 Starts:
25.2 IP, 3.87 xFIP
19.8 K%, 6.9 BB%
12.9 K-BB%, 13.2 SwStr%Today vs BAL:
2.1 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 3 KIs it regression, or something more?
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) June 16, 2022
Most recently, the Orioles lit up Gausman for five earned on seven hits over just 2 ⅓ innings. That may have been a blowup start, but it’s starting to factor into some kind of larger trend.
And here come the White Sox! After an incomprehensibly bad beginning to the season for this lineup, the injury-prone Sox have MLB’s sixth-best wRC+ over the last two weeks (128). Chicago’s big problem was the inability to drive the ball in the air, characterized by the league’s lowest avg. launch angle. But that number has started to come around, as the Sox are closer to 20th than last in launch angle.
The White Sox have always hit the ball hard, but they just couldn’t do so in the air. But with the added angles, the White Sox have smashed the sixth-most doubles in MLB over the past month (53).
Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Pick & Prediction
My picks: Chicago White Sox ML (+115 at FoxBet Sportsbook)
I love the White Sox as home underdogs here.
Gausman is in a funk, and he’s always been slightly better pitching at home than on the road. He also hasn’t been dominant against the projected White Sox lineup, allowing a 94.3mph avg. exit velocity with a .576 xSLG and a .406 xwOBA over a lifetime of 56 PAs.
Meanwhile, Cease hasn’t allowed an earned run in 21 ⅓ innings over four straight starts. He’s struck out 26 during the period, although he has walked 15. Either way, he’s in a groove.
The White Sox offense will never be as deadly as Toronto’s, but Chicago has been hitting better recently and the White Sox have the bullpen advantage.
I like the value we’re getting here with Chicago.
