Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies: Predictions, Odds, Best Bets, Starting Lineups (5/10/23)

The Blue Jays and Phillies can both hit, but their series opens with a pair of great pitching matchups. Kevin Gausman and Zack Wheeler on Wednesday will follow Alek Manoah and Aaron Nola on Tuesday as the Phillies look to regain momentum after a recent slide. The Blue Jays and Phillies are even on the moneyline at -110.

Let’s make predictions for Wednesday’s game and take a look at why the Phillies look like the better pick at home.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction

The peripheral numbers look better than the raw numbers for both Zack Wheeler and Kevin Gausman, but Wheeler especially looks like a pitcher poised for a dominant stretch. As long as he’s missing bats at such a high rate and limiting home runs like he has so far, he can be one of the best pitchers in the National League.

It’s not easy to navigate this Blue Jays lineup, which has three players batting over .310, but Wheeler has a good chance to build on the solid start Nola put together on Tuesday.

The Phillies’ offense continues to look stronger with Harper in the fold. Nick Castellanos is quietly having a strong season at the plate, and the return of Harper should help fix a lack of home runs.

If the Phillies can’t get to Kevin Gausman consistently, they should be able to get to the Blue Jays’ bullpen. Phillies -110 at home is my prediction here.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction: Phillies -110

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Odds

The Blue Jays and Phillies enter even on the moneyline at -110. The over/under is 8.5 runs.

Oddsmakers see a pretty even matchup here, with the Phillies having home-field advantage and likely a slight pitching advantage but Toronto entering with the better offense. The return of Bryce Harper seemed to inject a little bit of life into Philadelphia’s offense. This series might be a good indication of how much of an immediate difference he can make.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Key Matchups

Here are the key matchups that could decide Blue Jays vs. Phillies.

Blue Jays’ High-Contact Lineup vs. Zack Wheeler

Wheeler hasn’t had the best season on paper, especially for his standards, but there are signs his numbers are about to go on the upswing. Wheeler has a 2.46 FIP, one of his highest strikeout rates, and has allowed just one home run this season. Will the positive signs translate to results against a difficult Blue Jays lineup to navigate?

It always seems like at least one Toronto hitter is on an absolute tear. Last week it was Daulton Varsho, who is just a complementary piece in a lineup led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Matt Chapman. Only two AL teams strike out less than the Blue Jays. With Wheeler averaging 10.9 K/9, something has to give. That’s going to be the showdown that could define the game.

Bryce Harper vs. Kevin Gausman

Harper went 0-for-4 in his rapid return from Tommy John Surgery, but he did nothing but rake in the four games that followed. The two-time MVP went 7-for-15 over the four games leading up to the series against the Blue Jays, with a home run, three walks, and an OPS near 1.300. What adjustment period?

Harper has the ability to breathe life into a Phillies lineup already missing a big-time power bat in Rhys Hoskins. Could he stay hot against Gausman? Gausman has done a nice job of limiting damage over the last two years but has given up more than nine hits per nine innings dating back to 2022. Harper could be poised for multiple appearances on the basepaths with the way he’s been hitting.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Starting Lineups

Blue Jays Starting Lineup

CF George Springer R
SS Bo Bichette R
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. R
3B Matt Chapman R
LF Daulton Varsho
C Alejandro Kirk R
DH Brandon Belt L
2B Whit Merrifield R
CF Kevin Kiermaier L

Phillies Starting Lineup

2B Bryson Stott L
SS Trea Turner R
DH Bryce Harper L
RF Nick Castellanos R
LF Kyle Schwarber L
C J.T. Realmuto R
1B Alec Bohm R
CF Brandon Marsh L
3B Edmundo Sosa R