Toronto Maple Leafs Vs. Buffalo Sabres Odds, Picks, and Predictions (3/13/22)

By Scott Steinberg | Mar 12, 2022, 10:59pm

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On Sunday, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Buffalo Sabres will face-off in the 2022 Tim Hortons NHL Heritage Classic in Hamilton, Ontario.

Toronto lost in overtime at home to Arizona 5-4 on Thursday evening. Alexander Kerfoot had a goal, his 10^thof the year and two assists, while William Nylander scored his 23^rd goal of the season and had an assist in the loss. Peter Mrazek allowed four goals on 12 shots before being pulled in the second period. Erik Kallgren, in his NHL debut made 10 saves in relief. The Maple Leafs are 37-16-5 with 79 points, third in the Atlantic Division. Craig Anderson made 30 saves for his 300th NHL win, as the Sabres won at home over the Golden Knights and their former captain Jack Eichel 3-1 on Thursday night. Peyton Krebs and Alex Tuch both acquired in the Eichel trade each scored for Buffalo in the victory. The Sabres have won three of their past five games. Buffalo is 19-32-8 with 46 points, seventh in the Atlantic Division.

Toronto Maple Leafs Vs. Buffalo Sabres Betting Odds

Over is 8-2-1 in the Maple Leafs last 11 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Toronto is 8-3 in their last 11 meetings with Buffalo. Over is 6-1 in the Maple Leafs last seven games vs. a team with a losing record. Toronto is +1100 to hoist the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1966-67. The Sabres are 1-7 in their last eight Sunday games. Buffalo is 1-4 in their last five games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game; they allowed one goal to Vegas in their last contest. Under is 6-1-1 in the Sabres last eight games playing on two days’ rest. Over is 20-8-3 in the last 31 meetings between Toronto and Buffalo.

Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

Center Auston Matthews leads the NHL in goals with 44 and ranks fifth in the league in points with 76. The sniper has scored 40 or more goals in three different seasons and has 243 career goals. In his sixth season, he

has scored 23 points on the power play (13 goals and 10 assists). Matthews leads the team in game winning goals with six this campaign. The number one pick in the 2016 draft is the favorite to win the Hart Trophy at +150. Mitch Marner is second on the club in scoring with 62 points in 49 games (23 goals and 39 assists). He’s tied for third on the team in plus/minus at +14 and has 15 points on the power play (five goals and 10 assists). Marner had his eight-game point and assist streak snapped Thursday against Arizona. During the streak he scored 17 points (six goals, 11 assists). William Nylander has 54 points this season (23 goals and 31 assists) and tied for third on the team in scoring. He has 22 points on the power play (seven goals and 15 assists) and averaging 18:20 of ice time per game this season. In his fourth campaign with Toronto, captain John Tavares has 54 points, tied for third on the team in scoring (19 goals and 35 assists). This year he has won an impressive 61.2% of his face-offs. Michael Bunting has been impressive in his rookie season, with 47 points (20 goals and 27 assists) in 58 games. He has four points on the power play and averaging 15:38 of ice time per game. Bunting leads the team in plus/minus at +20 and +400 to win the 2021-22 Calder Trophy.Morgan Reilly leads Toronto’s defensive group with 46 points (six goals and 40 assists). He’s averaging 24:01 of ice time per game and is a +9. In his ninth year, he’s blocked 59 shots and delivered 56 hits. T.J. Brodie is a +11 with 12 points (three goals and nine assists) in his second season with Toronto. He leads the team with 82 blocked shots and averaging 21:16 of ice time per game. Justin Holl is second on the team in hits with 86 and blocked shots with 73. He’s a +14 and has chipped in 13 points this campaign. Jake Muzzin is third on the team in hits with 84 but is out indefinitely due to a concussion.

Due to a rib injury goalie Jack Campbell will be out for at least two weeks. In his third season as a Maple Leaf, he’s 24-9-4 with a .914 save percentage and a 2.65 GAA. The 2021-22 All-Star has four shutouts in 39 starts this campaign. Peter Mrazek will get the bulk of the work in net while Campbell is out of the lineup. On the season, playing in 16 games Mrazek is 10-5-0 with a 3.43 GAA and a .884 save percentage. The goalie in his tenth season is scheduled to start the Heritage Classic against the Maple Leafs.

Buffalo Sabres Odds

Tage Thompson is tied for the team lead in goals with 23 and leads the club in scoring with 42 points in 55 games this season. Before this year, his career high for points in a season was 14 (eight goals and six assists) which he accomplished last season. He has 12 points on the power play in 2021-22. Jeff Skinner is tied for the team lead in goals with 23 and is second on the team in points with 41. He’s scored three game winning goals and has seven points on the power play this campaign. In his fourth season with the Sabres, Skinner has scored 84 goals with the club. He scored a career-high 40 goals in his first season in Buffalo (2018-19). Kyle Okposo is third on the Sabres in scoring with 34 points in 53 games (15 goals and 19 assists). The winger in his 15^th year in the NHL is tied for first on the team in power goals this season with six. Dylan Cozens has 30 points in 56 games this year (12 goals and 18 assists). The seventh overall pick in the 2019 draft is averaging 16:00 of ice time per game and has tallied five points on the power play. Alex Tuch one of the main players traded to Buffalo from Vegas in the Jack Eichel trade leads the Sabres in plus/minus at +6. In 27 games he has 24 points this season (eight goals and 16 assists).

Rasmus Dahlen leads Buffalo defensemen in average ice time per game at 23:48, he’s also the groups leading scorer with 37 points; first on the Sabres in assists with 29. Henri Jokiharju is averaging 21:09 of ice time for Buffalo in 2021-22. The 29^th overall pick by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2017 draft has 13 points with 32 blocked shots this year. Mark Pysyk has played in 57 games this season, scoring 11 points. He’s averaging 18:22 of ice time per game and is second on the team in block shots with 81.

Goaltending seems to be an ever-present issue for Buffalo since they traded Ryan Miller in February of 2014 to St. Louis. This season the Sabres have started six different goaltenders (Craig Anderson, Dustin Tokarski, Aaron Dell, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Malcolm Subban and Michael Houser). Craig Anderson has started 17 games this campaign and when healthy should be the Sabres number one goalie. On the season he is 9-8-0 with a .904 save percentage and a 3.01 GAA. Dustin Tokarski has started 19 games between the pipes for the Sabres this year. He’s 5-9-4 with a GAA of 3.26 and a save percentage of .902.

Toronto Maple Leafs Vs. Buffalo Sabres Picks & Prediction

Toronto is scoring 3.7 goals per game, ranking them third in the NHL and attempting 34.6 shots per game, seventh overall. In their lineup, Toronto has seven players that each have at least 42 points. On the defensive side, the Maple Leafs are allowing three goals per game which ranks 17^th in the NHL and yielding 30.6 shots a game, tenth overall. Toronto will be making their fourth outdoor game appearance and have won two of their three outdoor contests. Buffalo is scoring 2.6 goals per game, 26^th in the league and taking 29.7 shots per game, 22^nd overall. Five players on the Buffalo roster have each scored at least 30 points in 2021-22. Defensively the Sabres are allowing 3.5 goals per game, ranked 27^th overall and 34.1 shots per game, 30^th in the league. This will be Buffalo’s third outdoor game appearance; they have lost both previous outings; 2008 and 2018 in the Winter Classic. I like the Maple Leafs to win this game by 1.5 goals and the clubs to combine for over 6.5 goals.

Scott Steinberg

Scott has been a sports fan since he received a New York Mets jacket as a toddler. He’s been playing fantasy baseball and football for over 20 years, dating back to Frank Thomas being one of his first fantasy baseball picks. As a professional, he has covered the NFL, MLB, NCAAF, and NCAAB and is looked to as the go-to guy for fantasy sports amongst family, friends, and co-workers.