Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning (5/6/22) Betting Odds, Prediction, Line Combination, Starting Goalies
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Everyone in Toronto and the GTA believes that this is the Leafs’ year. They’ve been saying that every year, but after Game 1, this year felt different.
After Game 2, that feeling quickly evaporated.
The Lightning put together a dominant performance on the road in Game 2 to steal back home ice. Money Puck put the post-game win probability at over 80% for the defending champs.
What was surprising is that the shots, hits, and faceoffs were relatively even. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the better goalie, but not by much over Jack Campbell.
Can the Leafs bounce back in this one? Or will Tampa roll in the first game on its own ice?
Let’s dive into the betting odds and my prediction for this Game 3 matchup.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Odds
No surprise that these teams are relatively even in the market.
It’ll be hard to handicap this game given both teams were so dominant in their respective wins.
The 6.5 total at plus-money seems somewhat short, given both games went over convincingly.
Let’s dive a bit deeper and see if there’s any value
Toronto Maple Leafs Analysis
The Leafs scored 315 goals, cruised to a .700 record, went 31-8-2 at home, and finished with 115 points.
Toronto still finished second in the Atlantic Division. Sadly, Florida was too dominant this season to give up any ground at any time.
Toronto was just one of two teams to score over 300 Expected Goals. Florida was the other.
Toronto did allow fewer Expected Goals than the Panthers, with the Leafs’ 227 ranking sixth in the NHL. And Jack Campbell was a very effective goalie in his second year north of the border, posting a top-10 Goals Saved Over Expected mark.
Auston Matthews should be a frontrunner for MVP. He was just one of eight players to record 100 points, with 60 of them being goals. His goals scored mark was easily the highest in the NHL, as he netted five more than second-place finisher Leon Draisaitl.
Tampa Bay Lightening Analysis
Tampa Bay is stacked with talent.
Steven Stamkos was a 100-point scorer himself, netting 42 goals in the process. Nikita Kucherov was their third-highest point scorer. And Andrei Vasilevskiy continues to truck along, finishing second in the regular season in Goals Saved Above Expected.
Vasilevskiy is so good. The only guy that is better is New York’s Igor Shesterkin. But Shesterkin is young, and Vasilevskiy has been doing this consistently for almost a decade. 2021-22 marked the fifth consecutive year he led the NHL in wins.
But that’s not surprising when the five guys in front of you are studs. Tampa Bay cruised to a 110-point season while going 27-8-6 at home.
It’s hard to beat the Lightning at home. And that’s why it was so important Tampa grabbed that game in Toronto. Something the Lightning did in dominant fashion.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Picks & Prediction
My pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML (-110 at WynnBet)
Tampa was so good in one of the toughest venues in hockey. Now the Lightning will come back to Southwest Florida, where they have one of the biggest home-ice advantages in hockey.
I don’t know how Toronto is going to continue to net goals against Vasilevskiy. Last postseason – during the Lightning’s Cup run – he posted a .940 save percentage at home.
It’s too tough for Toronto to come up here in Game 1 in Tampa. Look for Toronto to bounce back in the next series game.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Starting Goalies & Line Combination
