Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (1/27/23)

One of the bigger mysteries of the NBA season has resided with the Golden State Warriors. Deemed a championship favorite in the preseason, they have grossly underperformed per their expectations. A major reason for this has been the difference in their level of play when they are on the road in comparison to being at home. They are one of the best units at home, and now host the middling Toronto Raptors on their home court. Can they get the job done and climb up the Western standings?

Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

Oddsmakers certainly think so as they opened the Warriors as a -6 favorite on their home court. Bettors think elsewise, backing the Raptors down to +5 as of writing with indicators pointing towards it going lower. This brings major intrigue to me as the Warriors will potentially be back at full health while also having statistical advantages on both ends of the court. Even if Wiggins is unable to go again, the Warriors may go smaller like we saw against the Grizzlies and throw Poole into the starting lineup.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored at a quick pace as oddsmakers opened the total at 229.5. Bettors have absolutely smashed the over, taking it up to as high as 235 as of writing. This comes as a bit of a head scratcher as the Raptors would need to play a major role in contributing to the over with their scoring production and that is not something I am certain they can pull off. Even with that said, I am avoiding the under as the Warriors home splits are far and away one of the most impressive metrics in the NBA as a championship contender.

Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors Prediction

The Pick: Wait on Warriors spread

With that said, I will continue to wait to see if the Warriors spread will continue to dip before taking a position on them. While I do like them at the current number of -5, I will be a little selfish and see if I can get a -4. This is a starting lineup that is far and away the best in the league when playing at home with the best point differential in the NBA.

One of their bigger advantages in this matchup comes on the backs of their defense, playing with an identity equipped to give the Raptors fits. The Raptors have struggled to shoot the ball at a consistent rate and lack a perimeter presence, forcing them to find interior offensive production. This plays into the Warriors hands as they are one of the best interior defenses in the league, limiting a completion percentage that is good for top-5 best in the league.

Not only do they excel in half-court defense, but they are equipped to limit the transition offense as well. This is the best form of Raptors offense, ranking as one of the best in the league in fast break points. The Warriors defense is top-3 in transitional defense, being more than capable of limiting the Raptors best form of scoring production.

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Betting Trends

• Raptors are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 meetings in Golden State
• Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings
• Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Golden State

Key Matchups

Can the Warriors Splash Brothers find success against the Raptors perimeter defense?

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson vs Raptors perimeter defense

Once hailed as one of the best defensive units in the NBA, the Raptors have regressed back down to the middle of the pact. Unfortunately for them, they now go against the best offense in the league when at home.

A major reason for their regression has been their inconsistency at defending the perimeter. This opens the floor for Curry and Thompson to deal damage. Should they find success from deep early, this stretches out the Raptors defense for the Warriors to find interior success as well.

Verdict

Pass on this for now and wait to see if the Warriors spread continues to drop. Play this at no higher than -5.

Toronto Raptors Starting Lineup

PG: Fred VanVleet
SG: Gary Trent Jr
SF: OG Anunoby
PF: Scottie Barnes
C: Pascal Siakam

Golden State Warriors Starting Lineups

PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Draymond Green
C: Kevon Looney

Key Injuries

Toronto Raptors Injuries: Dalano Banton (Q), Otto Porter Jr (O)

Golden State Warriors Injuries: Andrew Wiggins (Q), Andre Iguodala (O)