Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions (2/26/23)

Two of London’s biggest clubs are set to meet in the Premier League with quite a bit on the line. For Chelsea, they’re looking for simply anything positive to cling onto, while Tottenham are struggling to assert themselves in what is becoming a fascinating race for the top-four spots in the league. Let’s take a look at the odds and make some picks for this clash in the nation’s capital.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea Odds

Tottenham are narrow home favorites with +145 odds, while the visitors are +190 and the draw +235. For a goalscoring line of 2.5, the over is even money at +100, while the under is -125.

Tottenham Hotspur vs. Chelsea Prediction & Pick

Despite all of their extravagant spending, Chelsea are trapped in a true nightmare. They’ve played 10 games in all competitions in 2023, lost 5, and drawn 4. While it’s impossible to pin the blame for such a horrible run of form in one area, the lack of goalscoring cannot be ignored. Over the past 5 games, the Blues have scored just a single goal, which is quite a shame considering the defensive performances they’ve wasted- two clean sheets, both resulting in 0-0 draws, and three one-goal outings, two 1-0 losses and a draw. Some of the new signings have impressed at times, Mykhailo Mudryk and João Félix come to mind, but the end product has simply not been there, and the team has suffered immensely as a result.

Spurs on the other hand are not in what I would call great form, but it’s surely better than what their opponents are going through. If we eliminate the two FA Cup matches against second- and third-tier sides, Antonio Conte’s men have won 4 games and lost 5 in 2023. It’s been a true mixed bag, as impressive results like the win over Manchester City have been interspersed with debacles such as the 4-1 loss to Leicester, and then there’s matches like the 1-0 UCL loss to Milan and other simply uninspiring performances. The team can score, there’s no doubt about it; there’s just issues at the other end that could really sink them in both the short and long run.

I’m always uneasy picking Spurs in a big match, but at home against a team in as poor form as Chelsea, I have no choice but to take the admittedly good value odds and pick Spurs +145 as my moneyline projection for this match. The goalscoring line is a bit harder, it’s tough to pick between Spurs’s defensive porosity, and Chelsea’s total ineptitude in the attacking third, but I’ll go with the latter. We’ve seen the Tottenham defense step up at times, especially at home- think of the Man City match. Meanwhile Chelsea have shown signs of life in terms of possession and chance creation- they racked up 1.33, 1.62, and 2.20 xG in their recent clashes against Fulham, Southampton, and Dortmund- but they were still held goalless in all of those matches. The drought theoretically has to end eventually, but there’s simply a problem in front of net that makes it tough for me to bet on a high scoring output in this one, so I’ll stick with u2.5 goals at -125.

Key Matchups

Chelsea Attack vs. Tottenham Defense

As we all know, Chelsea have plenty of big-name attackers so it’s hard to predict how they’ll line up. In a big match, Kai Havertz can usually be expected; he’s been the team’s most prolific scorer this season, although that doesn’t say a whole lot (6 goals in all competitions). I’d also be surprised if Mason Mount wasn’t involved in some capacity, and then there’s the newcomers. Félix and Mudryk have had an up-and-down start to their time at Stamford Bridge, but their talent is undeniable- I’d expect one or both to be in the lineup. Lastly, Hakim Ziyech, who’s been around for 2 years but still seems to be settling in, could be a factor in the XI or off of the bench.

Tottenham’s defense is missing its longtime anchor, veteran French goalkeeper Hugo Lloris who is out with an injury. Fraser Forster has been alright in relief, but is realistically not on the same level as the team captain. Spurs run a back three which is pretty reliably composed of Cristian Romero, Eric Dier, and Clément Lenglet; the trio have been pretty uneven this season, but are comfortable together and can put together a good performance. The fullbacks have been a bit more inspiring, with breakout performer Emerson Royal on the right and one of Ben Davies and Ivan Perisic, who leads the team in assists, across the formation.

Tottenham Attack vs. Chelsea Defense

As always, the Spurs attack centers around Harry Kane, although that’s perhaps even more true than usual as he enjoys a particularly strong season and his teammates have been either inconsistent or injured. Son Heung-min falls into the former category, as he’s struggled a bit this year, while playmaking winger Dejan Kulusevski falls into the latter, but he’s healthy now and has played some solid football. Richarlison also continues to be a huge disappointment following his move from Everton. Lastly, Spurs have relied heavily on the chance creation services of Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, arguably the side’s best player this year, but the Danish midfielder will be unavailable due to a yellow card suspension.

The Chelsea defense has been playing really well lately, driven in part by the resurgence of goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga. Even at age 38, centre-back Thiago Silva has been maybe the best player for Chelsea this season, and he’s joined by the similarly formidable Kalidou Koulibaly, forming an excellent veteran duo in the middle. He’s dealt with injuries this year, but when on the pitch, Reece James has once again been excellent at right back, and at the other fullback position, either one of Marc Cucurella or Ben Chilwell could be up to the task of putting in a winning performance. Chelsea’s route to success in this match must be goal prevention, and this group is absolutely up to the task if they’re at their best.