Trae Young Fantasy Outlook & Value 2019-2020

There was a wide range of outcomes for Trae Young in his rookie season, and he failed to disappoint. After watching him in college, we knew there was going to be some struggles throughout the rookie season. The draft day trade was a big one, where he ended up with a growing Atlanta Hawks team. With all the youth now on the team, he is the center piece alongside John Collins for the future of the team. Young played 81 games last season, posting a 19-3-8 line. He wasn’t going to deliver any real fantasy stats, and we knew that coming in. That would be the area that helps some upside if he does chip in more steals this season. On a game-to-game basis, Young had a volatile shot. He shot 41.8% from the field, and 32.4% from three.

Young found his groove in the second half of the season. His volume went up, and he just had the look of a player playing with more confidence and understanding of the game at the NBA level. He averaged about four more attempts per game in the second half of the season, which led to 24.7 points per game after the break. He also shot 44% from the field, compared to 40% in the first half. Young averaged 2.4 threes per game in the second half, and despite all the scoring increases, he also averaged 9.6 assists. Averaging 23 points per game over the final three months of the season gives us a look into the possible upside he has for the 2019-20 season.

Trae Young Projected Fantasy Stats

GPMPGPPGRPGAPGFG%FT%3PT%STLBLKTO
7332.022.74.19.342%85%32%0.90.24.5

 

Upside

As mentioned above, the second half of the season numbers present a strong case for the upside he can bring in year two. A 24-4-9 line in the second half of the season was over a 22 game stretch. He averaged 16-3-7 in the first half of the season. The minutes and shooting volume went up, and that is something I do expect to hold over the course of this season. Him hitting a 24-4-9 line over 82 games is a very extreme upside projected, but more so in the points per game range. I have him right in the 22 points per game range, and upside would certainly be 24 per game. The nine assists per game is something I find that he can hold for a whole season, especially with the names he has around him.

Young would enhance his upside being able to generate more steals, but defense isn’t really his specialty. I wouldn’t expect a jump in those defensive categories. Bringing more stability to his shooting would also funnel into the upside for this season. He is being drafted inside the top 35, and in this range I am drafting him for this upside and not his floor. I wouldn’t even mind reaching a few spots to get him either.

Floor

Young had a wide range of outcomes coming into last season, and that range has shrunk a little bit coming into year two. I wouldn’t expect a consistent FG% this year, but the volume will carry him to a 19-20 point per game type floor. A 19-3-8 line is where I would put his floor this season, which is still very solid. Because he doesn’t contribute in other categories, that might come across as a disappointment if you do draft him within the top 35. The assist category is where I see his floor to be the most consistent, where the rebounds and points could differ a bit. It won’t be that much of a drop off, however. You are drafting for upside at his spot, and not his floor. Keep that in mind.

What to Expect

Atlanta HawksI will echo a bit of what the article suggests. He is a top 35 player being drafted right now, but has potential to be a top 20 player. The upside suggested is worth chasing, and I will be one chasing it in season-long leagues. We will have to put up the down games when the shot doesn’t go down, and low percentages. This ADP and auction value is pretty fair, but the auction value is where I could see some driving it up for those chasing the upside.

Don’t overpay for Young too much, as I would be willing to go $5-8 higher than his auction value. The ADP is going to be a bit different depending on your draft spot. If you are at the end of a snake draft and have a long turnaround, you might have to reach more than you should. Young has potential to finish as a top point guard option.

Post
Jason Guilbault is the Brand Content Manager for Lineups.com, powered by Catena Media. He has worked 10+ in the sports betting & iGaming space as a writer and content manager. Jason has also written for DailyFantasyCafe, NBAMockDraft, & FantasyPros. He aims to bring the best sports data & insight to the industry for both novice & advanced users.

Hot Fantasy Basketball 2021 Stories