Travis Kelce Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

travis kelce Pretty easy call for the number one tight end, Travis Kelce. He has one of the best quarterbacks throwing to him, and a creative offense that allows him to beat opposing defenses. It also doesn’t help that he is a mismatch against linebackers and defensive backs. Kelce was the runaway TE1 in 2018, and is projected to be yet again. You will have to pay a premium price in the early second round to even late first, but he is worth it. The Kansas City Chiefs have one of the best fantasy offenses in the game.

2018 Fantasy Recap

FPTS 2018 Tier GP REC SNP/G TGT/G YDS YDS/REC 100+ YDS TD Yahoo PTS/G
193.6 1 16 103 62.1 9.4 1,336 12.97 5 10 15.2

Travis Kelce posted TE1 numbers with ease last season. He was one of two tight ends to go over 100 receptions, Zach Ertz was the other. Kelce scored about 25 points over the next tight end, George Kittle. Averaging 12 fantasy points per game, Kelce was one of the safer overall receivers in the game. Kelce has posted 117, 122, and 150 target seasons over the last three. He has 22 touchdowns in that span and over 1,000 yards in each of those seasons. Kelce is averaging 5.1 receptions per game, and averaging 13 yards per reception in his career. It was also another durable season for Kelce. He has started 15+ games in each of the last four seasons.

Kelce getting huge targets with a career 70% catch rate is the reason for his success and ceiling. Kelce led the Chiefs with 30 targets in the red zone, which was 32% of all red zone targets. In terms of all passing targets, Kelce saw 28% which also led the Chiefs. Kelce was top ten in overall targets, and was ninth in receptions.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Position Ranking ADP Auction Value Bye Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
TE1 2.04 $27 12 91.1 1,191.5 8.5

A unaminous number one tight end pick, projected for over 90 receptions, 1100 yards, and eight touchdowns. Those are stellar numbers, and Kelce has established himself as a top ten receiver overall. Given the advantage of Kelce and a pretty deep wide receiver position for upside, you can afford to take an early pick on Kelce. He just has that type of floor/ceiling. Kelce should see similar production with the same amount of targets. Even if Tyreek Hill is out some games, the Chiefs offense is built to keep defenses guessing. Kelce has the potential to outscore the TE2 by 30 points.

Draft & Auction Value

Hard to argue about Kelce being too expensive when you look at his track record. He has earned these prices and ADP, so I don’t argue against paying it. You do have Zach Ertz and George Kittle going later, which are the other two premium tight ends. There is a big gap between these three and the rest of the position. Kelce is the top tier option of the group and is the most reliable. Seeing Kelce going late first is a tough pill to swallow, but I understand the process. However, I rather be in the range of the second round if I can, or have a quick turnaround in a snake draft.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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