Trevor Story Fantasy Baseball Outlook & Value 2020

Trevor Story is one of the stop shortstop options, going second to Francisco Lindor in drafts, and on occasion Trea Turner. Story is one of the bigger power bats at the position, and also brings 20+ stolen bases to the table as well. You don’t find this type of production with most players, and you are going to be paying late first round price tag, and possibly early second. This is not a big deal, as he is worth the ADP and auction value for me. The Colorado Rockies bring a handful of fantasy options within the first few rounds, and Story is one of them. Shortstop is a deep position, but the upside Story brings is one to target. Sign me up for one of the top fantasy options in baseball.

Last Three Years Stats

YearAgeGPAABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBBAOBPSLG
2017241455555036812032324827490.2390.3080.457
201825157656598881744263710827470.2910.3480.567
201926145656588111173385358523580.2940.3630.554

Only two shortstops have hit more home runs than Trevor Story over the past three seasons. That is Manny Machado and Francisco Lindor. Story also ranks 6th in RBI during that time as well. Not many are driving in runs like him either, as he has 275 over the past three seasons, which is good for 3rd at the position. He is hitting .276 in that span, with a .341 IBP and .530 SLG. Story ranks 3rd in runs, and is one of the premium power and speed options at the position. Story leads all shortstops in ISO over the past three seasons, and is one of the top talents to target in drafts. This recent production is only going to continue, and drafting him just gives you safety as well as some small upside from what he has been doing over recent years. Sign me up for more of this production.

2020 Fantasy Projections

ADPAuction $PAABH2B3BHRRRBISBAVG
10.81$39661.3594.0179.142.06.234.2110.2107.122.50.302

The tweet above sums up how I feel about the Turner/Story debate. He projects for 34 home runs this year, and over 20+ stolen bases. Story is also going to project for monster numbers in the runs and RBI department. The mix of power and speed is projected here, which is tough to find. He should be the second shortstop off the board, and if he isn’t, then you should be the one grabbing him. As long as he has a healthy seasons, these numbers are obtainable, and looking towards his ceiling, tacking on a few in the home run and stolen base category is not out of reach either. Another healthy projection for one of the league’s top shortstops.

Floor

Story should be talked about more for the floor he brings too. He has had 30+ home runs in each of the last two seasons and 20+ stolen bases there as well. Yes there is a drop off in his numbers on the road, but it doesn’t really hurt him all that much. I love what he brings to the table in every category, and maybe he takes a step down in average and hits .270-.280, but that is still a very strong floor for him to have.

Ceiling

A 40 home run and 25 stolen base season is not out of the question for Trevor Story. He is coming off back to back years with 35+ home runs and has 50 stolen bases in that span as well. He has increased his contact rates, and is a tremendous mix of power and speed. Out of the shortstops, Story and Lindor certainly have the most upside, and will likely be top three finishers barring any sort of injury. Story has gravitated to his ceiling more so in the last two seasons, which is why I am high on him once again at his higher ADP.

Auction/Draft Value

Shortstop isn’t a bad position this season, and there are a few going ahead of Trevor Story at times. Francisco Lindor has been the more consistent name going ahead of Story, but Trea Turner has as well at times. Story has the bigger power numbers of him and Turner, but less stolen base upside. However Story still projects for a 30/20 season with huge RBI and run upside. Story is going at the end of the first round, and I like him in this range. I trust him to bring the stats he has the last two seasons. I don’t trust Turner to always get to those power projections.

Colorado Rockies Offense

Trevor Story is a strong mix of power and speed, and is a part of a front four names that possess big power as well. Three of the first four hitters are projected for over 30 home runs. Story is the only SB threat, as Charlie Blackmon fell off in that regard. No surprise to see Coors at the top of the list for most park factors. For right-handed bats they were first in everything but home runs, where they ranked third. Colorado ranked 9th in runs. The home road splits are real. They averaged the most runs per game at home (6.1), but the third fewest on the road (4.1).

Statcast Corner

Screen Shot 2020 03 02 at 10.54.45 PMTrevor Story is a statcast beast. He ranked in the 83rd percentile in exit velocity, and 87th percentile in hard-contact. His expected stats were slightly above average, which seems to be the case with most Rockies bats. Story has made strides in cutting down his strikeout rate, and has had a hard-contact rate over 45% in the last two seasons. He ranked 37th in sprint speed last year, and has been in the top 40 in each of the last four seasons.

Story has struggled with breaking stuff, but actually has handled off-speed pitches quite well. We’d expect him to crush fastballs, which he does. With his improved contact rates, Story has a better floor than prior years, and is a tremendous shortstop option with a mix of power and speed.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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