Predictions for Twins vs. Tigers: Score Projection, Over/Under Pick & Odds – July 4

Thursday’s contest between the Minnesota Twins (48-38) and the Detroit Tigers (39-47) at Target Field has a good chance to be a close matchup, as our computer prediction projects a final score of 5-4, with the Twins taking home the win. First pitch is at 1:10 PM ET on July 4.

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Twins vs. Tigers Matchup Info

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Twins vs. Tigers Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Twins 5, Tigers 4
  • Total Prediction: Over 9 runs

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Twins vs. Tigers Betting Lines

Twins vs Tigers Betting Information
Favorite Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Over Total Odds Under Total Odds
Twins -175 +145 9 -101 -129

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Twins Betting Insights

  • Minnesota has come away with 38 wins in the 59 contests it has been listed as the favorite in this season.
  • This season, the Twins have come away with a win 18 times in 22 chances when named as a favorite of at least -175 or better on the moneyline.
  • Contests involving Minnesota have gone over the total set by oddsmakers in 42 of 85 chances this season.
  • The Twins played as the moneyline favorite in 14 of their past 15 games, and they finished 9-5 in those matchups.
  • In its past 15 outings — all had a set run total — Minnesota and its opponents combined to hit the over on the total 11 times.

Tigers Betting Insights

  • Detroit has put together a 20-26 record in games it was the underdog on the moneyline (winning 43.5% of those games).
  • The Tigers have played as a moneyline underdog of +145 or longer in only two games this season, which they lost both.
  • In the 85 games bookmakers have set an over/under for Detroit, it has combined with opponents to go over the total 47 times (47-36-2).
  • In nine games as underdogs in their past 15 matchups, the Tigers have a record of 3-6.
  • Detroit and its opponents have combined to hit the over six times in its past 15 games with a total.

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Twins vs. Tigers Probable Pitchers

Twins’ Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober

  • The 28-year-old has pitched to a 4.30 ERA this season with 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings compared to 2.4 walks per nine across 16 games.
  • Bailey Ober’s team has been victorious in 60% of the games he’s started as the moneyline favorite with a record of 6-4.
  • In games Ober has started, his team is 8-8.
  • Games started by Ober have a 6-9-1 record at hitting the over this season.

Tigers’ Starting Pitcher: Kenta Maeda

  • Over 14 games this season, the 36-year-old has a 5.76 ERA and 6.8 strikeouts per nine innings, while giving up a batting average of .279 to opposing hitters.
  • The Tigers are 4-5 in Maeda’s nine starts this season that they were the underdog on the moneyline.
  • Maeda’s team has a 5-9 record in his starts this season.
  • Kenta Maeda has started 14 contests with a total set by sportsbooks this season. The teams have combined to go over the run total in seven of them.

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Twins’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 48-38
Home 24-17
Road 24-21
One-Run Games 14-10
Scoring 5+ Runs 35-6

Tigers’ 2024 Performance

Split Record
Overall 39-47
Home 19-22
Road 20-25
One-Run Games 13-14
Scoring 5+ Runs 27-5

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