Tyreek Hill Fantasy Football Outlook & Value 2019

Tyreek Hill is a tough player to evaluate at the moment given we don’t know the extent of him potentially missing games in 2019. If out there, he is one of the more dangerous weapons for the Kansas City Chiefs. At the moment we have him projected to miss some games, which weights down his overall projections. Hill is coming off a world class fantasy season, and was part of the top passing threat in all of football. However, his status being up in the air causes some issues for those already drafting.

2018 Fantasy Recap

Tier FPTS 2018 Rating GP SNPS/G TGT REC TGT/G YDS 100+ YDS YDS/REC TD Yahoo PTS/G
2 247.0 92 16 59.0 137 87 8.5 1,479 6 17.0 12 17.8

It was an elite year for Tyreek Hill finishing with Patrick Mahomes as the best fantasy pairing in football. He had over 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns. Hill also played all 16 games, and generated over eight targets per game. There is no doubt that the Chiefs are better with Hill in the offense, and their ability to move them around the field helps out quite a bit. Hill was 4th in receiving yards, and was third in touchdowns. Having 151 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown also adds to his fantasy production. It was a great year for Hill, and 2017 and 2018 is certainly within his range of outcomes if he can play 12+ games even. Averaging 17 yards per reception was among some of the top wideouts, and he also has some double dip appeal with his special teams play. Hill rewarded those who took a chance on building upon a strong 2017 season.

2019 Fantasy Outlook

Position Ranking ADP Auction Value Bye Week Receptions Receiving Yards Touchdowns
WR42 4.03 $18 12 37.7 562.7 5.5

Assuming Tyreek Hill is suspended for at least a few games, we factor that into the projections. This would mean a drop off in about everything, and especially touchdowns. His trend of becoming the top fantasy wideout was there since his rookie season and his targets have increased each year. It also helps that Patrick Mahomes has a cannon for an arm and can utilize Hill’s home run play threat. Hitting value is going to be mostly about the suspension, and the Chiefs knowingly prepared for his absence drafting Mecole Hardman, who is a similar player to Hill. This puts Hardman in a chance to thrive in year one and can be a volatile WR3 if Hill is out. Overall we just need to keep an eye on this situation and adjust as news comes in.

Draft & Auction Value

There isn’t really a discount on Hill at the moment, even with the suspension uncertainty. The same goes for auction values. Fantasy footballers are anticipating a minor suspension at the least to one not at all. It is a serious investigation, although the NFL has not been overly harsh on these types of penalties at times. With growing pressure from outside of the league, this could be a time to make a statement. Hill’s upside is worth the risk, but have a contingency plan, or even grab Hardman to protect yourself from a dud top five round pick.

  
Jason Guilbault has been writing and podcasting in the fantasy sports world for over five years. You can find his work at Daily Fantasy Cafe. He is an avid Tottenham fan, and follows the Boston sports teams. When he isn’t diving into stats, he is enjoying the outdoors or down at the local brewery.

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