UCLA vs Arizona: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/3/22)

UCLA vs Arizona Betting Odds

It’s time for the re-match!

UCLA hosted Arizona at Pauly Pavilion and won convincingly. Arizona looked like a young team that wasn’t prepared for the UCLA atmosphere.

However, the Bruins now have to walk into the McKale Memorial Center and try to come out with a season sweep over the Pac-12 leading Wildcats.

That might be much tougher than people imagine. The Wildcats looked pathetic against UCLA the first time around, but they’re still laying over six points in this matchup.

Is it worth buying the Wildcats in a classic bounce-back spot?

UCLA Bruins Odds

After a last-minute blistering comeback, UCLA lost a classic in overtime against Oregon back on Jan. 13.

The Bruins have not lost since.

The streak has pushed UCLA atop the Pac-12 standings by a half-game over its opponent today. The Bruins have also snuck up to third in the AP Top-25 Poll.

UCLA’s offensive story is the same. Tyger Campbell takes care of the ball (UCLA is fifth nationally in offensive turnover rate) while the three wings shoot the lights out from mid-range.

The defense has surprised me this season, however.

The Bruins are tough defensively. Outside of the point guard position, the roster is lengthy and filled with athleticism. Mick Cronin can switch two through five and overwhelm opposing drivers and shooters.

That’s exactly what UCLA did against Arizona. The Bruins hounded the Wildcats to the tune of 16-for-47 (34%) from 2 and 7-for-28 (.250) from 3. Arizona finished with a 34 eFG%.

All in All, the Bruins are ninth in defensive efficiency.

Arizona Wildcats Odds

But are we sure that wasn’t just an off-shooting night for Arizona?

Kerr Kriisa finished with zero points on 0-for-12 shooting, including 0-for-9 from 3. That’s almost impossible. He’s had a few off nights this season, but nothing that putrid.

Every 3-pointer bricked for Arizona, but it found itself still in the game for most of the contest.

Arizona is so lengthy while being so athletic. It allows the team to be first in 2-point defense while running the floor so well and attacking the interior in transition. Arizona gets out in transition at the fourth-highest rate while posting the 14th-highest transition eFG% and the eighth-highest 2-point percentage.

The Wildcats are always run-and-gun, however. They’re second nationally in tempo. But that’s because of new head coach Tommy Lloyd, the Gonzaga assist who has the Wildcats playing like the Bulldogs.

I’d only nit-pick Arizona on one thing: Rebounding. While Arizona leads the Pac-12 in total rebounds given their absurd pace, they’re rebounding at just the seventh-highest rate on defense.

UCLA vs Arizona Prediction and Pick

My pick: Arizona -6 (-115 at PointsBet)

Arizona put up 11 more shots and six more free throws than UCLA in that game a few weeks ago. The Wildcats should’ve put up a lot more points in the game than they did.

I also love the offensive mismatches for the Wildcats. The UCLA transition defense isn’t good, ranking in just the 10th percentile in transition points per possession allowed.

Arizona is a dominant team that had a remarkably bad shooting performance. The advanced metrics show that Arizona could’ve easily won that game.

Now, the Wildcats will get the Bruins at their house in a big-time bounce-back opportunity with first place in the conference on the line.

It’s tough to back Arizona after their last performance against UCLA, but Arizona has the skills and ability to blow out any team, including UCLA. Bet the Wildcats up to -7.