UCLA vs Oregon: Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions (2/24/22)

UCLA vs Oregon Betting Odds

Oregon was looking great. We were approaching March, and Dana Altman was aligning the Rubik’s Cubes.

Until he wasn’t. Oregon dropped a home game to a sneaky-good Cal team and then got swept on an Arizona road trip. The Ducks are still 10-6 in conference play, but their at-large resume is questionable at best.

Meanwhile, UCLA got swept on its Arizona road trip at the start of February. The Bruins have won four of five since, but they did drop a road game to USC. The Bruins are in line for a four-seed now, but it’s a far-cry away from what they were projected in the pre-season.

So, can the Bruins up their tournament stock with a huge road win over a struggling team? Or is it time to buy low on the Ducks?

UCLA Bruins Odds

UCLA is a great all-around team.

Tyger Campbell takes care of the ball and puts the ball in the right place. The savvy point guard is nationally ranked in both assist rate and turnover rate, and the Bruins are fifth nationally in offensive turnover rate as a team.

Meanwhile, Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, and Jules Bernard are elite shot-creators and shot-makers. The Bruins are 11th nationally in midrange frequency and 19th in midrange efficiency.

And the defense has been excellent. UCLA is not just second in the Pac-12 in offensive efficiency, but it’s also second in the conference in defensive efficiency.

The Bruins are tough at every position. The wings all stand between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-7, and 6-foot-10 Myles Johnson is versatile for playing the center position. Johnson’s 8.9% block rate also ranks top-45 among all Division-I players.

UCLA is currently first in the Pac-12 in 3-point defense, but its 29.8 3P% allowed seems unsustainable. Some regression came in the losses to Arizona and Arizona State, but I would be cautious betting UCLA down the stretch.

The question is if UCLA has enough firepower to win the Pac-12 tournament. This is a very talented team, but it has matchup issues with Arizona and is one bad shooting night away from being upset by USC or Oregon – or one of the other talented-but-underperforming Pac-12 teams.

Oregon Ducks Odds

Oregon is a deeply flawed team.

The offense is coming together. Will Richardson and Jacob Young constitute one of the most talented offensive backcourts in the conference. The Ducks have posted the second-highest conference-only effective field goal percentage and the second-lowest offensive turnover rate. The Ducks are scoring and scoring with efficiency.

The Ducks cannot stop a nosebleed.

Oregon is now seventh in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency and eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Ducks are also ninth in defensive rebounding rate. The perimeter defense is okay, but it’s getting burnt in the midrange area (that doesn’t bode well for this matchup).

Oregon is likely due for some slight positive regression, but the team is so inconsistent. The Ducks have already defeated UCLA and USC, but both wins weren’t pretty. Oregon is also a pathetic 10-17 against the spread on the season.

There is time for Dana Altman and co. to fix this mess, but the Ducks have lost all momentum entering the Pac-12 final stretch. It will need to sweep its final four games and make a run in the conference tournament to be considered for an at-large bid.

If it fails to do so, Altman will have to win the conference tournament to make the Big Dance. Altman and Oregon haven’t missed the tournament since 2018.

UCLA vs Oregon Prediction and Pick

My pick: Oregon +3 (-110 at DraftKings)

Oregon has two extra days of rest against a UCLA team starting a three-game road trip.

Moreover, the Ducks are hungry for a victory against a UCLA team that they’ve beaten in three straight meetings.

Coach Altman might just have coach Mick Cronin’s number, and I’m willing to bet that’s the case in Eugene on Thursday night.

I can’t really explain why, as the matchup should favor UCLA on paper. However, the Bruins are exploitable if you force their hand.

UCLA loves to shoot the midrange. So, the Ducks allowed UCLA to shoot 18 midrange shots in the last meeting, and Oregon smothered the Bruins on those attempts. UCLA made just six of those 18 attempts and got to the rim only 13 times.

Image credit: CBB Analytics

I’m expecting Altman and the Ducks to come out with similar defensive intensity in that area. Otherwise, the Bruins aren’t imposing enough down low to overpower Oregon, and the Bruins don’t have enough sharpshooters to out-shoot them.

I’ll hold my nose and bet on the Ducks to keep up in a must-win scenario.