Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns: Prediction, Starting Lineups, Odds (11/26/22)

Don’t let the last regular season of college football distract you from the fact we have a huge NBA game tonight for our viewing pleasure. The Phoenix Suns travel to Utah to battle it out against the shockingly high-powered Jazz in a battle for Western supremacy. Can the Jazz prove they belong with a victory over the Suns? Let’s find out.

Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

Oddsmakers don’t think so as Utah opened as a +7 underdog and has stayed firm at that number. While their sudden rise has been a delight, they still seem to be playing way above their rank and may be in for a surprise when they go against an elite Phoenix squad who will be looking to make another deep run in the playoffs.

As for the total, points are expected to be scored in a flash as the number opened at 230 and has quickly leapt up to 232.5 as of writing in some shops. With the Jazz fielding a weak fast paced defense, the Suns should have no issue in keeping their identity of a fast-paced lethal unit.

Utah Jazz vs Phoenix Suns Prediction

The Pick: Over 232

While I really want to wait to take a Jazz +8 should that number appear, I will settle with the over before it climbs even higher as this game script is screaming for points to be scored by both ends early and often.

While I still have some skepticism of the Jazz, I am starting to slowly become a believer in that they may actually be better than they are perceived. With a bunch of young, energetic, scoring talent, they have the ability to keep pace with the Suns in a track meet. 

While the offense has been efficient, it’s their defense that plays heavily into the cap. The Jazz are 21st in Adjusted Defensive Rating, giving up wide open threes and cuts to the basket in transition. This plays into the hands of the Suns who specialize in getting out in transition and burning you from deep with their top-3 adjusted offense rating.

Even should the Jazz slow them down into halfcourt sets where they rank top-5 in defending, the Suns counter punch with an impressive half-court offense themselves revolved around filling open gaps with lethal mid-range shooting.

Betting Trends

• The over is 8-2 in the last 10 Jazz games this season
• Utah is 11-4 ATS as an underdog this season

Key Matchups

Can the Suns still be efficient without Chris Paul facilitating in the half court? How will the Jazz defend transition threes?

Suns scoring diversity vs Jazz half-court defense

It’s never easy losing a future hall of fame point guard, but the Suns offense seems to be clicking in a new identity without him during his absence.

While Cam Payne certainly is not as efficient, he brings a more explosive scheme in his cuts to the basket as a high pace north and south weapon. Even with questionable shot selections, Payne stretches out defenses which allow the likes of Booker and Bridges to do work in the middle.

With more screens and set schemes to allow their weapons to move around the perimeter freely, the Jazz will need to lock up the top end and that is an area they have struggled with so far into the season.

Jazz transition defense vs Suns explosiveness

A heavy part of the handicapping to this over is the ability of the Suns to put up points in a hurry against the weak Jazz transition defense.

As previously mentioned, the Jazz are one of the worst units in transitional defense and are now tasked with defending the likes of Booker and Bridges on the perimeter while Payne runs around like a mad man. 

I struggle to see how they find success against this versatile unit as even Ayton poses as a threat in the run with his quick slender frame hovering around the rim.

Verdict

Take the over in what should be an entertaining night cap of a game with both units being able to score in a hurry.

Utah Jazz Starting Lineup

PG: Jordan Clarkson
SG: Collin Sexton
SF: Jarred Vanderbilt
PF: Lauri Markkanen
C: Kelly Olynyk

Phoenix Suns Starting Lineups

PG: Cameron Payne
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Torrey Craig
PF: Mikal Bridges
C: Deandre Ayton

Key Injuries

Utah Jazz Injuries: Leandro Bolmaro (Q)

Phoenix Suns Injuries: Landry Shamet (Q)