Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs travel to face the New York Knicks this Wednesday (11/8/23). Get Victor Wembanyama player props best bets below, including a search tool to optimize odds shopping.
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Which areas will Victor Wembanyama dominate in his matchup against the Knicks?
Victor Wembanyama Under 19.5 Points (-102 FD)
San Antonio loves to play a fast, loose game with plenty of transition opportunities and quick scores. However, the exact opposite is true of the Knicks, who rank 24th in pace and average the most field goal attempts per game with seven seconds or less on the shot clock (per NBA.com). New York will grind this game to a halt and force San Antonio to play in the half-court.
Victor Wembanyama thrives as a transition scorer that can utilize his unique length and mobility combination in the open court, so New York’s style severely slashes excellent scoring chances for the rookie. In addition, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson are physical defenders that embrace contact, which doesn’t bode well for Wembanyama’s skinny frame and finesse-over-power style. They can push him off his spots on post ups and keep him away from the rim.
I am expecting Wembanyama to subsequently increase his jump-shot frequency, and he hasn’t proven the ability to knock them down at a high rate. Wembanyama is 23 for 65 (35.3%) on field goal attempts outside of ten feet. Overall, it’s a bad matchup for the rookie’s scoring output, especially with Devin Vassell’s spacing gone due to injury.
For the bet to have a positive expected value, he must score less than 20 points about 51 percent of the time based on his odds.
SGP: Victor Wembanyama 2+ 3PM & 6+ Rebounds (-131 FD)
The Knicks have surrendered the third most made threes per game to opposing power forwards because Julius Randle struggles on closeouts. With New York projected to raise Wembanyama’s jump-shot frequency, the rookie should see an increase in three-point attempts. He’s already at 5.3 per game, so it’s reasonable that Wembanyama takes six or seven threes here. Although he is far from an elite shooter, the 2023 first overall pick would only need to shoot roughly a 30 3PT% to hit two threes.
Meanwhile, the Spurs will need Wembanyama’s rebounding more than ever in this spot because New York leads the NBA in offensive rebound percentage. Therefore, look for Wembanyama to emphasize crashing the glass, where his 8’0” wingspan can snag the basketball.
For the same game parlay to hold a positive expected value, it must hit about 57 percent of the time.
Keldon Johnson First Basket (+750 FD)
It’s not exactly a Wembanyama prop, but he does have a substantial impact on its success. Wembanyama is favored to win the tip-off, which greatly increases the chances that the Spurs score the first basket of the game.
With Devin Vassell doubtful and probably out, it’s likely that either Wembanyama or Keldon Johnson attempt San Antonio’s first shot. The Knicks are going to take Wembanyama out of his comfort zone and emphasize his inefficient outside shot, so he’s not exactly the most desirable option, especially given his odds. Meanwhile, Johnson is the top overall scorer on the court for San Antonio. He’s their best off-the-dribble creator, but he can also knock down shots as a spot up shooter. His versatility is key here because it allows him more paths to score. Finally, the Knicks have surrendered the 5th most corner three-point attempts, and Johnson paces the Spurs in this department.
He must score the first basket about 12 percent of the time.
For a Spurs vs. Knicks game preview, click this link.